5 reasons why Sherrone Moore's Michigan will fall short against Dan Lanning's Oregon
Heading into the season, Michigan was the defending national champion, and Oregon was the new kid on the Big Ten block. But two-thirds of the way through the college football season, the Dan Lanning-coached Ducks are No. 1, and Sherrone Moore's Michigan is a two-score underdog in this matchup.
Here are five reasons the Wolverines are in big trouble on Saturday.
5 reasons why Michigan will fall short against Oregon
#5. Dillon Gabriel is ridiculously solid
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel might not have been quite as flashy as expected, but he's been ridiculously solid. How solid? Gabriel has yet to have a game completing under 62.5% of his passes, gaining under 6.8 yards per pass or not including multiple touchdowns. Michigan would need to significantly hamper Gabriel, if not shut him down.
But Oregon might have been brilliant in plugging Gabriel into its system. There's been no shutting him down-- he plays a good game or a better game. And Michigan probably can't afford to allow Gabriel to have even a good game.
#4. UM has struggled with teams that can run the ball
This season, when Michigan holds its opponent under 100 rushing yards, it is 4-0. The corollary is that the Wolverines are 1-3 when they allow 100 yards. The problem here for UM is that Oregon has rushed for 100+ yards in every game this season. In fact, Oregon is ridiculously consistent, running between 31 and 39 times per game, scoring at least one rushing TD in every game.
#3. Too many turnovers
Michigan's offense has turned the ball over 15 times this season, next to most in the Big Ten (trailing only Michigan State's 16). By comparison, Oregon has only committed eight turnovers. In UM's three losses on the season, it has been -7 on turnovers, which is exactly what the Wolverines will have to avoid to have any shot at hanging around a game with the Ducks.
#2. A lack of explosives
Michigan is actually last in the Big Ten in 10+ yard plays and in 20+ yard plays. The Wolverines are at or near the bottom of the rankings for every ranking of explosive plays. In general, underdogs need to take advantage of big gains to pull unlikely upsets. But that's not really Michigan's game.
#1. A passing problem
Coming into the season, the lack of an established passer was considered the biggest issue facing Michigan. That has essentially been proven true. UM is 129th of 134 FBS teams in passing yardage per game with 130.5 ypg. The Wolverines are 121st in passing efficiency and 130th in passing yardage per attempt.
Taking down No. 1 Oregon would take a level of passing competence that's just not in the cards for Michigan. Meanwhile, the Ducks are ninth in the nation in opposing passer rating, so it's a perfect storm for an awful passing game.
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