5 worst-case scenarios to watch out for in the SEC regarding the College Football Playoff
With the first expanded College Football Playoff on the horizon, the SEC should be in pretty good shape. Despite some puzzling recent losses, the SEC is generally acknowledged as the top league in college football. So what could harm their Playoff shot? Well, here's five scenarios that could definitely hurt.
5 worst-case Playoff scenarios to watch out for in the SEC
1.More crazy SEC upsets
The biggest enemy of the SEC is, well, probably the SEC. No. 7 Alabama was humbled by Vanderbilt. No. 11 Tennessee lost to Arkansas. No. 18 Ole Miss stumbled against Kentucky. This could be a problem.
It's one thing for the SEC's big dogs to beat up on each other. It's another for the league's weak links to keep upsetting the alleged best teams. Ole Miss's Playoff life is already deeply in jeopardy due to the Kentucky loss. If Tennessee ends up losing to, say, Alabama and Georgia, that Arkansas loss might knock them out of the Playoff. The SEC's best Playoff future involves a lack of upsets.
2. Chalk results in other power leagues
The other major leagues holding form down the stretch could also hurt the SEC. A 9-3 SEC team probably doesn't get in over a 10-2 team from the Big Ten or an 11-1 team from the ACC. The SEC would love to see Ohio State, Miami and Penn State stumble a time or three down the stretch.
If the Big Ten gets three teams in and the ACC gets two, after the Big 12 champion gets in and a Group of Five team emerges, the SEC's slate of possibilities start to get smaller. Fewer worthy teams from the Big Ten and ACC helps the SEC.
3. Group of five chaos
The other big issue is the Group of Five. The SEC would love to see Boise State emerge as the clear G5 super power, Notre Dame to stumble a couple times, and 11 spots to be available for the power four conferences. That's a recipe for four or five SEC teams.
But what if Boise loses to, say, UNLV, which has a CFP-worthy resume, and then Notre Dame also sneaks in. Suddenly, there's only nine spots left, and after league champions, there's only five left. Add a second pick to the SEC, Big Ten and ACC, and suddenly it's tough to find many more spots. That's the SEC nightmare.
4. A lack of star power
The SEC will help its cause with teams full of likely stars. If, say, Missouri sneaks into the CFP discussion, could Luther Burden help sell the Tigers as more viable than another team? Possibly. But teams like Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M don't boast viable superstar players who might get an edge for potential viewership. It's far from fatal, but could hurt the SEC.
5. A lack of fourth and fifth options.
Texas, Georgia and Alabama are very likely CFP teams. But the SEC could be hurt if the fourth and fifth choices aren't as apparent. Tennessee is the most likely fourth team, per ESPN's FPI (which gives the Vols a 45% chance of reaching the Playoff. But if UT loses to Georgia and Alabama, it's far from clear that a 9-3 team with a loss to Arkansas gets in.
Likewise for LSU, A&M and certainly an Ole Miss team that already has two losses. The SEC won't benefit from a ton of 8-4 teams and would do better if clear No. 4 and No. 5 picks are apparent.
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