ACC College Football Playoff bubble watch, Week 10: Miami topples FSU in dominant style as Hurricanes stand unbeaten
As the ACC rounds into the final weeks of the season, its College Football Playoff situation is up in the air. Obviously, the league is guaranteed one team in the Playoff.
A second team is somewhere between a vague possibility and a likelihood. At this point, a third team would take a combination of odd circumstance and good luck. But, who's in; who's out, and who's hoping? Here's the ACC CFP watch.
ACC CFP bubble watch, Week 10
Teams in the CFP
Miami
The Hurricanes have got it made. Now ranked in the AP top 5, at 8-0, they are joined by Pittsburgh as the only two teams without a loss from the ACC. While the Panthers have five games left and face a tough schedule, Miami should be in good shape.
Home games at Duke and Wake Forest loom ahead, with road trips to Georgia Tech and Syracuse rounding out the month. Syracuse is probably the best team of the bunch, but it's not quite a powerhouse left for Miami.
The Hurricanes are the overwhelming favorites to win the conference and are all but guaranteed to take a CFP berth. If someone upsets the Hurricanes in the ACC title game, it would be an easy way to guarantee two league berths. But Miami isn't so much thinking about getting into the Playoff now as earning a bye with one of the top four spots.
Teams Hoping for the CFP
Clemson
The 6-1 Tigers have looked like a CFP team since they were crushed by Georgia in Week 1. They haven't lost a league game but have a fairly challenging November schedule. They host Louisville, go to Virginia Tech and Pitt, and finish the month in their rivalry with South Carolina.
At. No 11 in the AP poll, the Tigers might have enough mojo to grab a spot. They probably can't afford a non-ACC title game loss, or they'd have to win their way in against Miami in the conference title game.
SMU
The No. 20 Mustangs are 7-1 and have an outside shot at the Playoff but lack a little of the mojo that Clemson can claim.
That said, SMU is unbeaten in the conference, and other than playing Pitt this weekend, has a pretty soft go of it. Home games with Boston College and Cal aren't too challenging, while a road trip to Virginia isn't fearsome.
However, realistically, SMU probably needs some outside help. Not only do they need to win out, maybe Clemson taking an upset loss could help their case. SMU has to get to No. 2 in the league to have a shot and then either get some non-ACC help or take down Miami. That's the path.
Pittsburgh
Everything said about SMU is true for Pitt too, but the shot is a little more distant. The Panthers are 7-0, but if they take down SMU, Clemson and Louisville next month, it'd be difficult to argue they didn't earn their shot at the postseason.
The problem, though, is that their schedule is brutal. There's also a road game at Boston College to finish the regular season. Pitt would probably be happy posting an 11-1 season, but that might not be enough for the Playoff.
Teams Needing Help
ESPN has the above four teams as the only ones with better than a 1.4% shot at the Playoff. The three other teams with tiny chances, are Virginia Tech, owner of that 1.4% opportunity, Louisville (0.3%) and Duke (0.1%).
Va. Tech has only one league loss, but its situation would require running the table and seeing a couple of the teams above them stumble badly. Louisville and Duke, each with a pair of league losses, have a chance in name only.
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