Alabama Playoff picture after Week 8 loss: Exploring Kalen DeBoer's chances to make CFP after Tennessee defeat
There is good news for Alabama, and it's that the year is 2024. In any previous incarnation of the College Football Playoff, Alabama would probably be buried.
A team with a second loss - as Bama does after a 24-17 defeat to Tennessee in Week 8 - had a difficult time making the top four teams in college football. And a second conference loss probably does block Alabama from the SEC title game, which would have been their best chance.
But here we are in 2024, and there are a dozen CFP spots. The bad news for Alabama is that while the prognosis is better, it still isn't good. Teams that lose to Vanderbilt aren't generally considered among the best in the nation-- even if this Vanderbilt team is certainly different.
But here's the rundown on the Tide's CFP situation after a second loss of the year.
Alabama's Playoff picture after Week 8 loss
There is still a path for the Tide, but it's far from an easy one. More important, Alabama certainly no longer controls its own destiny. The Tide will need some help, and that's a situation the Tide haven't recently experienced. But here's the rundown on what Alabama is now facing.
Tide have no more margin for error.
First, and foremost, Alabama can't afford another loss. It's highly likely that a 10-2 SEC team (or even a couple of them) will make the College Football Playoff. But it's a much dicier proposition for a 9-3 team to make the Playoff. To go a step further, a 9-3 team with a loss to Vanderbilt is pretty much guaranteed to not make it.
It's not an easy path forthcoming for Alabama. Missouri is up next and after a week off, a game at LSU awaits. But if Alabama can weather this storm, its final three games against FCS Mercer, at a suddenly important-looking Oklahoma, and at home for the Iron Bowl against Auburn aren't too daunting. The next two games, then, are gigantic.
Alabama has to position itself as the SEC's No. 3 team
OK, the other part of this equation is for the Tide to work their way to the No. 3 spot in the SEC. Yes, a fourth SEC team probably will get into the CFP. Maybe even a fifth. But if the Tide want to be sure of their spot, they need to climb into the No. 3 position.
The winner of the Texas/Georgia game will be the SEC's top team. The loser could well be No. 2. If it's the Longhorns who lose, they're a solid bet there. But even if it's Georgia, losses to Texas and Alabama certainly wouldn't be disqualifying. The only other teams in the SEC without a loss are Texas A&M and LSU. As Alabama plays LSU, they can gain some ground there.
Tennessee is obviously an issue, as the Vols have the head-to-head advantage. Alabama would benefit from Tennessee either moving up and supplanting Georgia in the top two (which isn't impossible) or fading out of the pack.
But Texas A&M could throw a wrench into things. Missouri has a light schedule and could go 11-1 and mess up everything. Alabama can only control a portion of its fate, and an SEC with more than a few CFP contenders could bury the Tide if they're unlucky.
Win some style points
This is a challenge for this Alabama team, but as much as anything, style points could matter. In comparing teams from different leagues with few if any common opponents, how they look assembling their respective resumes could be the difference.
With the advent of conference play, Alabama's style points have nearly disappeared. The Tide had a brilliant first half against Georgia but lost the lead before coming back to win the game. They lost to Vanderbilt and held on for a two-point home win against South Carolina. Now the loss to Tennessee.
The Tide not only have to win their next four conference games, but if they were to lay a three- or four-score beatdown on Missouri or LSU, it certainly wouldn't hurt things. Not only can't the Tide afford any more losses, but they're not doing much to help themselves if they squeak out one-score wins over Auburn and Oklahoma.
If Jalen Milroe is the Heisman candidate he was hyped to be, that could be a double improvement for Bama. After all, a marquee player can matter almost as much as a hot team. Style points, whatever their form, are a must for the Crimson Tide in their CFP quest.
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