Best upset picks for 2024 college football bowl season ft. Boise State
With a massive slate of Saturday games, college football's bowl season is in full gear. While football is more of a certainty than basketball, in both sports, upsets are half the fun. The underdog team that doesn't have a supposed shot but surprises the favorite is always a compelling storyline.
Here are five bowl underdogs who are worth considering for upset storylines.
Best upsets picks for (remaining) 2024 college football bowl season
#5. Tennessee (+7)
Here's the thing: Tennessee has something of a Rodney Dangerfield effect. The Vols aren't as explosive as they've been in past seasons. They lost to Arkansas. They're not likely to score 50 points and turn their CFP game with Ohio State into a track meet.
But Tennessee's defense has improved. Tennessee's points per game allowed in the last five years have gone as follows: 30.1, 29.1, 22.8, 20.3, and this year 13.9. No, the Vols won't beat Ohio State in a track meet. They'll grind the game into a battle.
Ohio State still has a tendency to play tight. Ohio State is 2-2 in one-score games this year. All the pressure of this game will be on Ohio State and Tennessee's defense will deliver enough big plays to pick up a fairly ugly 27-24 type of win.
#4. Toledo (+6.5)
Yes, the Rockets lost their final two games, struggled a bit down the stretch and are not overwhelming in the ground game, averaging just under 3.5 yards per carry. But Pittsburgh lost its last five games and got gashed pretty thoroughly defensively.
The Panthers allowed 250+ passing yards in four of their last five games and 125+ rushing yards in four of the last five. While Toledo isn't electrifying, they're consistent enough to take advantage of a badly sliding Panther defense and pull an upset.
#3. Arkansas State (+7)
The Red Wolves are underdogs and there are some obvious issues. The team went 7-5 but was outscored by over a touchdown per game. But there's some method in picking the Red Wolves for an upset.
ASU was 6-1 in one-score games in 2024. They draw a 7-5 opponent in Bowling Green who is 1-3 in one-score games. It seems a bit counterintuitive, but if the game between the two is a one-score matchup, as oddsmakers expect, shouldn't it be Arkansas State who is favored to win a close game?
#2. UConn (+2)
Sure, it's a low spread, but the Huskies are probably not getting a ton of love. But here's the thing, in a lower-tier bowl game, there's an X factor in play. Which team derives more meaning from the game? A shocking 8-4 UConn team last won a bowl game in 2009. They'll be amped for this game.
On the other hand, a 6-6 North Carolina team already ditched their coach and is in a state of limbo. It's hard to imagine UNC drawing much from a game under interim coach Freddie Kitchens. The Tar Heels are just waiting to start the Bill Belichick era. Advantage to the Huskies.
#1. Boise State
The spread is uncertain, but Boise State will be a significant underdog against either SMU or Penn State in their second-round playoff game. The difference is Ashton Jeanty. The best player in the nation, Jeanty hasn't had trouble with any opponent. He can run wild on literally anyway and a Broncos team with the game's top player is hard to ignore.
What do you think of our bowl upset picks? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.