Big 12 Power Rankings 2023: Is Texas Finally "Back"?
Our initial Big 12 Power Rankings for the 2023 college football season attempt to answer some of the biggest questions surrounding one of the most intriguing conferences in the sport. Can Texas or Oklahoma assert their authority for one last time before they depart for the SEC? Where do newcomers UCF, Houston, BYU, and Cincinnati fit into proceedings? How much trouble are West Virginia in?!
Big 12 Power Rankings 2023
Our Big 12 Power Rankings for the 2023 college football season take into account a number of factors. Overall roster, coaching staff changes, schedule, and predicted record all play a part in ranking the 14 Big 12 programs from first to worst.
1) Texas Longhorns
Circle Week 2 on the 2023 college football calendar as the litmus test for what this Texas Longhorns team is capable of. Steve Sarkisian's team was a Quinn Ewers injury away from beating Alabama last season, and a win over the Crimson Tide in Bryant Denny Stadium on Sep. 9 would solidify the preseason take that this team is the one that finally lives and ensures that "Texas is back."
Their offensive identity begins with Ewers, but the third-year QB is surrounded by a deep RB room, and a WR unit led by Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell that is up there with the best in the nation. Offensive line continuity and development is a tick in the Texas box, while a defense loaded with talent from front to back makes the Longhorns the early leader in our Big 12 Power Rankings.
MORE: Big 12 WR Rankings, 2023
2) Oklahoma Sooners
Last year's 6-7 season isn't indicative of what this Oklahoma Sooners team can be under Brent Venables. With the combination of coaching staff, talent on the roster, and a schedule that features several lower-ranked teams in our Big 12 Power Rankings, the Sooners should return as a prominent force for their final year in the conference, challenging Texas for a title.
Dillon Gabriel can establish himself near the top of the all-time passing touchdown record book this year, needing just 25 to crack the top 10. The return to Norman of Austin Stogner bolsters his pass-catching options. A defense that allowed 30 points per game last year adds some key portal pieces, while Danny Stutsman and Jaren Kanak form a formidable LB duo.
3. Kansas State Wildcats
Since the formulation of the Big 12 in 1996, only two teams have successfully defended their title, and the Kansas State Wildcats have their work cut out to repeat as champions. Their schedule is brutal, with road trips to Norman, Lubbock, and Austin, while facing a rematch of the 2022 Big 12 Championship Game against TCU in Week 8. A repeat feels extremely unlikely at this point.
Despite the schedule and losing some talent to the NFL, the Wildcats still feature highly in our Big 12 Power Rankings. The return of QB Will Howard and imperious guard Cooper Beebe is important for an offense that adds former FSU rusher, Treshaun Ward. Watch out for defensive playmakers Khalid Duke, Austin Moore, and Kobe Savage to lead another impressive defense.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
There have been dark times in Lubbock since Mike Leach left town in 2009. With the prestige of Texas and the rise of TCU to a national power, Texas Tech has almost become the forgotten program, the little brother. However, the Red Raiders are enjoying a resurgence under Joey McGuire, riding momentum, a loaded roster, and an impressive coaching staff into 2023.
McGuire's team won their final four games of 2022, including a comprehensive bowl win over Ole Miss. They might never be the most defensively secure team in the Big 12, but their offensive prowess behind offensive coordinator Zach Kittley and a unit that includes one of the best WRs in the Big 12 -- Jerand Bradley -- ensures they should outlast most teams on their 2023 schedule.
5. TCU Horned Frogs
Did Sonny Dykes just capture lightning in a bottle last season or are the TCU Horned Frogs set up for long-term success? Their place in our Big 12 Power Rankings for the 2023 college campaign suggests a return to the final four might be a stretch for The Hypnotoad. TCU has to battle roster depletion and a schedule containing all four teams above them in our rankings.
A year out from being named the starter, Chandler Morris will be out to show why he was ahead of Max Duggan on the depth chart before the latter led one of CFB's fairytale stories. The return of OT Brandon Coleman will be important, while several transfers look to replace the loss of WR Quentin Johnston. Mark Perry, Bud Clark, and Josh Newton form a solid secondary too.
6. Kansas Jayhawks
Under Lance Leipold, the Kansas Jayhawks are a legit team in our Big 12 Power Rankings. With the return of several key components of a 2022 campaign that saw the best overall and conference record -- not to mention a return to bowl game eligibility -- since 2008, the Jayhawks are in a position to solidify themselves as a thorn in the side of the established order.
Leipold teams are famed for their OL play, and in Mike Novitsky and Dominick Puni they have an iOL as strong as any. That should allow Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal to assert themselves as two players up there with the best at their positions. Kansas added several transfers to the defensive front seven, but the return of DBs Kenny Logan Jr. and Mello Dotson is key.
7. Iowa State Cyclones
Last season was one to forget in Ames. Iowa State Cyclones teams have blown through the Big 12 under Matt Campbell, but they finally ran out of steam last season, whimpering to the worst record since he took over the team in 2016. It would be a surprise to see them win just one conference game in 2023, but don't expect them to be anything more than a middling force.
A scoring offense that ranked 114th last season is boosted by the transfer acquisition of Jayden Higgins, but their success rests on the development of QB Hunter Dekkers. Defensively, T.J. Tampa is one of the best cornerbacks in the conference, but having to replace almost all of their most productive playmakers is another factor in their middling position in our Big 12 Power Rankings.
8. UCF Knights
After two nine-win seasons as the head coach of the UCF Knights, Gus Malzahn leads the program into the Power Five realm. Our Big 12 Power Rankings forecast the disputed 2017 national champions to be the best of the newcomers to the program. While their introduction to the Big 12 is against the reigning champions, avoiding Texas this year is a major bonus.
UCF will likely ride or die on the fortunes of QB John Rhys Plumlee. One of the best dynamic dual threats on the ground, if Plumlee can be consistent as a passer for a WR group containing the impressive Javon Baker, then the Knights may be difficult to stop offensively. Tre'Mon Morris-Brash led the team in backfield production last fall and will be one to watch in the Big 12 this fall.
9. Baylor Bears
Baylor are at their very best when built on a strong defensive foundation, and last year they ranked in the bottom half of college football for points allowed resulting in a 6-7 overall record. In Gabe Hall, Garmon Randolph, and Matt Jones, they have a defensive nucleus for success but can they hold the high-powered Texas Tech offense or Texas, Kansas State, and TCU?
The answer to that question will very much determine Dave Aranda's team in 2023. Offensively, the addition of the Barrington brothers to the o-line should allow RB Richard Reese to once again be a destructive force for opposition defenses. Despite adding Sawyer Robertson, Blake Shapen is shaping up to be the QB1 and will need to cut down on interceptions in 2023.
10. BYU Cougars
Despite their status as an FBS Independent, BYU has been a prominent thorn in the side of Power Five programs in recent seasons and as they transition to the Big 12 for the 2023 college campaign, there certainly is the potential for success. Let's not forget, the Cougars beat Baylor in Week 2 last year, and capped off their regular season with a win over the Pac-12's Stanford.
With the addition of RB Aidan Robbins and QB Kedon Slovis, expect the Cougars to be offensively strong -- especially with talented pass-catchers like Kody Epps, Darius Lassiter, and TE Isaac Rex. Although they return Max Tooley and added FCS All-American Eddie Heckard to the defense, the unit might struggle to hold offenses like Texas Tech (Week 8) and Texas (Week 9).
11. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Mike Gundy hasn't had a losing campaign since his first season in Stillwater, which brings a certain level of expectation each season. Heck, Oklahoma State even received a first-place vote in the recent Big 12 Football Media Preseason Poll. However, there are multiple reasons why we're not as high on the Cowboys, hence their position at the depths of our Big 12 Power Rankings.
They allowed 28.9 points per game last fall, and although additions like Justin Wright and Anthony Goodlow should help, it's difficult to envisage the Cowboys taking a major leap in 2023. The offense only just outstripped what the defense gave up, and with Spencer Sanders gone, the QB situation in 2023 is dicey. They'll need big seasons from RBs Jaden Nixon and Ollie Gordon.
12. Houston Cougars
The Houston Cougars enter the Big 12 for the 2023 college football season with more questions than answers in the fifth year under Dana Holgorsen. Those concerns weren't helped by defeats to both conference opponents they faced last fall, Kansas and Texas Tech. Good news for Houston, they don't face Kansas. Bad news, they face Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, and TCU.
The biggest question for Houston is how do you replace the 4,074 passing yards and 40 touchdowns that Clayton Tune's departure leaves behind? Nathaniel Dell accounted for 1,398 yards and 17 TDs of that. Both are gone, and Tune's leadership might be even more of a loss than his production. On a positive note, the O-line is very talented, and the secondary got an infusion of playmakers.
13. Cincinnati Bearcats
In many respects, Cincinnati's transition to the Big 12 is two seasons too late. This Bearcats team isn't of the same caliber that terrorized college football in the 2021 season, setting the standard for all Group of Five teams to follow. The departure of head coach Luke Fickell is a big hurdle to overcome as they head to the Power Five, and there are some roster concerns too.
Those concerns are mainly offensive. Although the defense perhaps lacks a Sauce Gardner, players like Dontay Corleone, Jowon Briggs, and transfer Daniel Grzesiak will cause problems for most offensive lines. The offense is less threatening, with former Arizona State and Florida QB Emory Jones yet to prove himself and no standout rusher in the running back room.
14. West Virginia Mountaineers
Neal Brown enters the 2023 college football season as one of the coaches on the "hot seat" after registering a losing campaign in three of his four years at the helm. With road trips to Penn State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma on the West Virginia schedule, there's a similarly bleak outlook for the Mountaineers in the fifth year of his tenure as they prop up our Big 12 Power Rankings for 2023.
In C.J. Donaldson, they have one of the most unique RB weapons in college football, and Doug Nester, Zach Frazier, and Wyatt Milum give him a good OL foundation to rush behind. They'll need to see a leap from QB Garrett Greene, but even that might not be enough to overcome a defense that gave up nearly 33 points per game last fall as one of the worst in the nation.