College Football 2021: Conference title probabilities and projected win totals for every Big XII team
The Big XII has the potential to be highly competitive in 2021. It will take some work by the bottom half of the conference, but there is potential.
The conference is a bit top-heavy, with the top-four teams posing a threat to anyone in the country.
The Big XII is one of the few conferences in college football that is not broken into two separate divisions. Instead, all ten teams compete for the top two spots to play in the conference championship game. Here is a complete list of all the teams in the Big XII conference.
Big XII Conference
- Iowa State Cyclones
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Texas Longhorns
- TCU Horned Frogs
- West Virginia Mountaineers
- Kansas State Wildcats
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Baylor Bears
- Kansas Jayhawks
The biggest rivalry in the Big XII is the "Red River Showdown" between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns.
The list of rivalries in the Big XII is relatively short, with the conference only having ten teams. However, here is a list of the rivalry showdowns for the Big XII conference.
- Baylor vs. TCU, The Revival
- Baylor vs. Texas Tech, Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Shootout
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State, Farmaggedon
- Kansas vs. Kansas State, Sunflower Showdown
- Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, Bedlam
- Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
- TCU vs. Texas Tech, The West Texas Championship
- Texas vs. Texas Tech
- Oklahoma vs. Texas, Red River Showdown
Heading into the upcoming season, the Big XII is starting to look like a four-team race between Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State. The Oklahoma Sooners are the heavy favorites to win the Big XII in 2021. Here's a quick look at how the Big XII conference is projected to pan out during the 2021-2022 season.
2021 Big XII Conference Probabilities and Projections
#1 Oklahoma Sooners
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 81%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 60%
PFF Projected Win Total: 10.2
Oklahoma has one of the best rosters from top to bottom in the country. Lincoln Riley has built a great program in Oklahoma. The Sooners head coach is known for his work with bringing in top transfer quarterbacks in recent years.
Heading into the 2021-2022 season, the Sooners are being led by quarterback Spencer Rattler. Oklahoma's junior quarterback is coming off a 2020 season where he threw for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns.
The Oklahoma Sooners will need Rattler to improve against the lower half of the Big XII conference. His most notable game was against the Kansas Jayhawks in 2020. Rattler received a PFF offensive grade of 67.4 and a PFF passing grade of 62.8 against the Jayhawks.
Luckily for Spencer Rattler, he will take the field with Marvin Mims, Austin Stogner and Kennedy Brooks. The Sooners will have one of the best offensives in the country in 2021.
Oklahoma holds control in the Big XII on the defensive side of the football. The Sooners defense is returning both edge rushers Nik Bonnitto and Isaiah Thomas. But it doesn't stop there for Oklahoma. They'll also return defensive tackle Perion Winfrey.
The Sooners defensive line should feast on all Big XII offenses in 2021. But if the Oklahoma Sooners want to compete for a national championship, they'll need an entire bill of health throughout the season.
#2 Iowa State Cyclones
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 30%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 11%
PFF Projected Win Total: 7.7
Iowa State is coming off a successful 2020 season where they made an appearance in the Big XII championship game. The Cyclones capped off their successful season with a win in the Fiesta Bowl.
Iowa State received excellent news when Brock Purdy announced that he would return for his senior season. Purdy has been the heart and soul of the Cyclones offense for the past three years. Heading into his senior season, Brock Purdy has thrown for over 8,900 yards and 62 touchdowns.
Defensively, Iowa State will have the second-best defense in the Big XII in 2021. However, the success of the Cyclones doesn't fall on the shoulders of the defense. Instead, senior quarterback Brock Purdy will determine the success.
Brock Purdy is an elite passer if he gets into a rhythm. But when his rhythm is interrupted, Purdy struggles. If Brock Purdy can stay consistent and on schedule, the Cyclones should be able to repeat their performances from their 2020 season.
#3 Texas Longhorns
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 28%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 11%
PFF Projected Win Total: 7.8
Texas is entering the upcoming season with a new head coach and quarterback. The Longhorns hired former Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian this off-season. However, Sam Ehlinger's career in Texas landed him an opportunity in the NFL.
Texas will turn to either Casey Thompson or Hudson Card to replace Ehlinger in 2021. Thompson and Card both lack experience at the college level. However, Casey Thompson has the most experience with 17 pass attempts in 2020.
The inexperience doesn't stop at the quarterback position for the Longhorns. Texas does not have much to look forward to at the wide receiver position either. Their offensive line and running back Bijan Robinson are heading into the 2021 season.
Steve Sarkisian has his work cut out for him on offense and defense. Texas is returning cornerback D'Shawn Jamison. The problem for Texas is that they lost three other top defensive talents.
Steve Sarkisian now has a battle to bring Texas back to winning. Unfortunately, he has an uphill battle because the University of Texas isn't exactly patient.
If Sarkisian wants to stay as the head coach of the Longhorns, he needs to get a jump on improving their roster.
#4 Oklahoma State Cowboys
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 26%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 9%
PFF Projected Win Total: 7.9
Oklahoma State has a great chance at competing in the Big XII during the 2021 season. The Cowboys' defense ranks towards the top of the Big XII. Oklahoma State did lose longtime cornerback Rodarius Williams, but they're returning a lot of talent.
Defensively, the Cowboys will return Tre Sterling and Kolby Harvell-Peel, one of the best safety duos in college football. Oklahoma State also returns outside cornerback Jarrick Bernard-Converse.
Offensively, Oklahoma State will have an elite group of offensive linemen. However, Oklahoma State lost a lot at the wide receiver position and did not receive any replacements. The biggest question around Oklahoma State's offense is their quarterback, Spencer Sanders.
Oklahoma State will need to clean up their passing attack if they want to remain a contender in the Big XII.
#5 TCU Horned Frogs
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 10%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 3%
PFF Projected Win Total: 6.8
TCU was once one of the top football programs in the Big XII. The Horned Frogs have posted winning seasons in three of the last four years. They're entering the 2021 season heavily underrated.
Defensively, the Horned Frogs are loaded at the cornerback position. TCU is returning their top corner Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomilson. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have a potential breakout athlete in Noah Daniels.
Offensively, TCU's quarterback Max Duggan will lead their offense into the 2021 season. The Horned Frogs are also returning their running back Zach Evans, who is a former five-star recruit.
J.D. Spielman and Quentin Johnston lead TCU's wide receiving group. Suppose Duggan can continue his improvements. There is enough talent around him on offense to make a run at the Big XII championship game in 2021.
#6 West Virginia Mountaineers
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 8%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 2%
PFF Projected Win Total: 6
West Virginia suffered massive losses to its defense. Their top two defensive players, Tykee Smith and Dreshun Miller, transferred to SEC programs. The Mountaineers were set to have the best secondaries in the country until the transfers.
West Virginia's secondary may not be the best in the Big XII, but they're still highly talented. The Mountaineers will now turn to safeties Alonzo Addae and Sean Mahone. In order to assist the safeties, West Virginia has cornerbacks Nicktroy Fortune, Dante Stills and Josh Chandler-Semedo.
Offensively, the Mountaineers will return their starting quarterback Jarret Doege. West Virginia hasn't helped his cause as the starting quarterback by not recruiting talent to play around him.
The Mountaineers will need to fix issues outside of their quarterback position if they want to compete in 2021.
#7 Baylor Bears
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 7%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 2%
PFF Projected Win Total: 5.9
Baylor's biggest downfall for the upcoming season rests on the shoulders of the offense. The Bears' passing offense was non-existent at times during the 2020-2021 season.
Baylor lost their starting quarterback, Charlie Brewer, to the transfer portal when he transferred to Utah. They'll now turn their attention to either Gerry Bohanon or Jacob Zeno in 2021. Bohanon and Zeno both have combined for 76 snaps in their college careers.
Baylor's depth at wide receiver and wide receiver is thin, which could cause their quarterbacks to struggle. The Bears are on the path to another rough passing season in 2021.
Baylor's strength heading into the 2021 season is their defense. The Bears have two talented cornerbacks in Raleigh Texada and Kalon Barnes. Baylor also has a set of gifted linebackers in Jalen Pitre and Terrel Bernard.
If Baylor wants to compete in the 2021 season, they'll need their defense to lead the way.
#8 Texas Tech Red Raiders
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 5%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 1%
PFF Projected Win Total: 5.9
Texas Tech will head into the 2021-2022 season with former Oregon Ducks quarterback Tyler Shough.
Tyler Shough had massive shoes to fill in Oregon. Shough took over for current Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. Oregon had high hopes for Shough, and he started strong before falling off the cliff. He will look to take advantage of his second chance with the Red Raiders in 2021.
Defensively, the Red Raiders struggle with depth. Texas Tech does have talented players on the defensive side of the ball, but an injury could derail their defense.
Texas Tech heads into the 2021 season with safety Marquis Waters, who transferred over from Duke. The Red Raiders will also return cornerback Damarcus Fields.
Texas Tech will have a rough season because of depth issues on defense and a fresh face at the quarterback position.
#9 Kansas State Wildcats
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 5%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 1%
PFF Projected Win Total: 5.4
Kansas State has one bright spot on their football team heading into the 2021-2022 season. Skylar Thompson will return as the Kansas State quarterback. Thompson will need to prove that he can drop back and make good reads.
The Wildcats offense will go as far as Skylar Thompson carries them. If the Kansas State Wildcats can develop a running game, Thompson will play to his strengths. Skylar Thompson has his most success in play-action, set up by their running game.
Kansas State doesn't have much at the wide receiver position to help Skylar Thompson. His best target is Wildcats running back Deuce Vaughn. Suppose the Wildcats want to have some sort of success in 2021. They'll need to focus their offense around their running game.
#10 Kansas Jayhawks
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
PFF Big XII Conference Championship Win Probability: 0%
PFF Projected Win Total: 3.2
Kansas hasn't won more than three games in a single season in over a decade, and that streak will continue in 2021.
The Jayhawks took a significant hit losing their top four players this offseason—three out of the four players transferred to other programs. Karon Prunty is the only positive on the Kansas Jayhawks roster.
Kansas has three quarterbacks battling for a starting spot in 2021. The Jayhawks have narrowed it down to Jalon Daniels, Miles Kendrick and Jason Bean.
Jason Bean is the best quarterback out of the three. Bean transferred over from North Texas. While at North Texas, Jason Bean made many big-time throws and proved to be a threat with his running ability.
Kansas will need a miracle to happen for them to compete in 2021. The chances of the Jayhawks winning more than three games this season are slim. It's looking like another bottom-half finish for the Jayhawks in 2021.