College football playoff bracket: How does 12-team CFP field look after latest rankings release
As the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff approaches, there's still a fair amount of mystery as to which schools will be a part of it. It's likely the SEC and Big Ten will control most of the field, but a few spots are still up in the air as the regualr season nears its conclusion. Here's where the playoff field stands after the new rankings.
How does the 12-team CFP field look?
The Big Ten
The league's champion likely gets a top-4 spot, but the Big Ten's big four look set in stone. Pencil in No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Indiana. Indiana is expected to lose to Ohio State but one loss likely won't knock it out of playoff contention. It's possible a second loss for whichever team loses the Big Ten title could hurt a bit.
ESPN's FPI gives Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon each a 92.5% chance or better at making the CFP. Penn State's odds are at 83%, which is still the fifth-best in the nation. These four teams are likely to be in from the Big Ten.
SEC
Four teams will probably be in from the SEC, but knowing exactly which four is a mystery. No. 3 Texas is the SEC school that probably has its bid about locked up. The Horns have an 85.1% shot per the FPI.
Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama are in nearly identical situations. The three have FPI chances between 72.2% (Alabama) and 75.5% (Georgia). But the kicker here is this-- the Tennessee/Georgia game will give one of those teams another loss. Alabama is probably in, and the winner of Tennessee/Georgia is in.
If Tennessee is the loser of that game, a 10-2 Vols squad is still probably in. But if Georgia takes a third loss, jump Ole Miss into the picture. The Rebels (62.3% playoff shot per FPI) are in an awkward spot if the Vols lose. In a battle of a bunch of two-loss SEC teams, the Rebels may be the odd ones out. But if Georgia takes a third loss, pencil in Ole Miss to the CFP.
Everybody Else
These spots are fairly easy to decipher. The ACC title winner and the Big 12 title winner are both likely in. At the moment, Miami and BYU are the picks there. But those leagues probably don't gain a second bid if, say, SMU and Colorado end up winning those leagues. That said, a team on the playoff edge like Ole Miss or Georgia is certainly hoping the favorites win out.
Notre Dame has a resume worthy of the CFP, which is why the Irish are No. 8 in the latest rankings. Finally, there's the "G5" spot for the top-ranked champion of a league other than the Power Four. That looks like Boise State, but the Broncos are probably out if they lose their league. They could be replaced by Tulane or Army.
Overview
On the whole, the four non-Big Ten and SEC picks are somewhat guaranteed spots given the rest of the landscape. The Big Ten and SEC winners are likely to be joined by three teams each from those two leagues in the at-large setting. Whether Georgia or Ole Miss gets the last SEC spot is probably the question we'll have to wait to get an answer for. That said, Miami could make this a little more interesting with a bad loss-- as could Notre Dame.
What do you think of our playoff field assessment? What would you do with the 12-team field? Share your takes in our comments section!