College Football Playoff rankings prediction: Big 12's automatic bid remains uncertain while Notre Dame continues to show up
The College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled this evening, and it's time for a quick guess under the hood as to what this week's rankings will show.
The big news of Week 13 has to be Alabama's third loss of the season, so yes, time to move the Crimson Tide out of the field. Also, the Big 12 had a bad week, as multiple teams failed to grab control of the league. Here's the rundown.
College Football Playoff rankings prediction before Week 14
Those who are in the Playoff
Start with the obvious ones here – the top four will remain the top four in the playoff. That's Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State.
Penn State came the nearest to suffering an upset, but an ugly win is still a win.
Notre Dame isn't going anywhere. At 10-1 after a big win over Army, the Fighting Irish only have a 6-5 USC team between them and wrapping up a CFP spot. Even a loss would probably have Notre Dame solidly in the field, given the above situations with Alabama and the Big 12.
Georgia and Tennessee and Miami are all relatively safe as well. Miami's 10-1 mark and the stumbles of Alabama and the Big 12 mean that the ACC has a legitimate shot at getting both Miami and SMU into the field.
A 10-2 ACC team with one of the two losses in the league championship game probably trumps a 9-3 SEC team that won't make the title game. But more on that below.
Indiana, despite a few protests, is still in the playoff field. An 11-1 season, even one with an anemic opposing schedule, won't disqualify the Hoosiers. Likewise, Boise seems safe to pick off the Group of Five bid.
That accounts for 10 of the 12 spots in the field. The other two spots require a little more discussion.
SMU over Alabama (And Ole Miss, A&M, etc.)
The final spot in the playoff probably belongs to SMU. A 10-1 campaign sets the Mustangs up well, as does a regular-season finale against Cal.
The knock on SMU will be a lack of competition. Duke is probably the best team the Mustangs have defeated. But SMU's got a spot in the ACC title game and unless Miami humiliates them (assuming it's the Hurricanes and not Clemson), the Mustangs are safe.
Meanwhile, Alabama's third loss hurts. It's not just the fact of a third loss. It's that the loss was to a 6-5 Oklahoma team by a 24-3 score. Losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt aren't the end of the world, but for an Alabama team that will now only get one more chance to impress against a mediocre Auburn team, it's big.
Ole Miss is in the same situation. Losing to 6-5 Florida and 4-7 Kentucky feels pretty determinative. Texas A&M faces the same problem (barring an upset of Texas to send them to the SEC title game).
A 24-point loss to South Carolina is tough and losing to 5-6 Auburn does the Aggies no favors. So the SEC has played its way into three teams in the CFP field.
The 12th Bid (Or the Big 12's possible conundrum)
The 12th spot in the playoff is likely to go to the Big 12's title winner. But that's not certain. The way the CFP is set up doesn't guarantee automatic bids for the Power Four teams.
It guarantees automatic bids for the top five-ranked league champions. Now, that's clearly going to include the SEC, Big Ten and ACC. Boise (the Group of Five top team) is a fourth. But the fifth?
Well, there are four 6-2 Big 12 teams that could claim the title. That's being brief – there are five more 5-3 teams that aren't technically eliminated. But the 6-2 teams are a solid possibility.
They were ranked 14th, 16th, 21st and 22nd last week. But BYU and Colorado were those top two and both lost. Meanwhile, Tulane and Army are both 7-0 in AAC play. Army was 19th and Tulane was 20th.
Army lost to Notre Dame and will drop accordingly, but Tulane had a bye week and will likely be in virtually the same range as the top Big 12 team. If Tulane wins out, it's not at all impossible that the Green Wave will overtake the winner of the Big 12 and steal the last bid. So for now, call that final playoff slot Big 12 champ/Tulane.
Final Field Prediction:
Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Georgia, Miami, Indiana, Boise State, SMU, Big 12 champ/Tulane (and we'll say Arizona State currently has a slim lead over Tulane)
What do you think of our likely CFP rankings projections? Share your thoughts below in the comments section!