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Florida vs. Mississippi State prediction & betting tips - September 21 | College Football Week 4 

The Florida Gators are heading to Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday afternoon as they have an SEC matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 4. Both teams are underperforming and coming off games they should have done a lot better in.

The Gators (1-2, 0-1 SEC) are coming off last Saturday's 33-20 home loss to the Texas A&M Aggies. Senior quarterback Graham Mertz had a decent game as he finished 12-of-15 for 195 yards with a passing touchdown and an interception as well as a seven-yard rushing attempt.

On the other hand, the Bulldogs (1-2, 0-0) are on a two-game losing streak after a 41-17 home loss on Saturday against the Toledo Rockets. Senior quarterback Blake Shapen had a strong performance under center though as he was able to go 28-of-39 for 319 yards with a pair of passing touchdowns and an interception.

Florida vs. Mississippi State prediction

The Florida Gators are the better team on paper as they entered the game as 5.5-point favorites on the road which has since jumped up a full point. The Bulldogs could struggle to stop the two-headed monster of Mertz and DJ Lagway, as they provide different looks for the defense.

Florida's offense has been running the ball well as they have 4.1 yards per carry on their 87 rushing attempts. The Gators are the more talented team on paper as the Bulldogs' front seven on defense leaves a lot to be desired.

In terms of the over/under, the over has hit in nine of the previous 12 games for the Gators as well as in five of the last seven Mississippi State home games, dating back to last season. Simply put, these teams are going to be giving up big yardage on the ground that they are going to struggle to slow down.

Shapen has shown the ability to also put points on the board as well this season. The program is coming off an upset loss against the Toledo Rockets and could struggle after allowing 41 points at home. Expect Florida to cover the spread and begin to attempt to turn their season around.

Florida vs. Mississippi State betting tips

Tip 1: Over 58 Points (-108)

Tip 2: Florida Gators -6.5 (-115)

Tip 3: Montrell Johnson Jr. 70+ Rushing Yards (-145)

Florida vs. Mississippi State head-to-head

These two SEC rivals are more than familiar with one another as this will be the 56th time the Gators and Bulldogs battle it out on the gridiron. The last time they played was back in 2018 when the Gators secured a 13-6 road win.

How to watch Florida vs. Mississippi State

The game will be airing on ESPN for people watching on linear television. It will also be available to live stream on ESPN+, Hulu + Live Sports, Sling TV, Fubo TV and DirecTV Stream.

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