Big Ten championship scenarios: What happens to Oregon and Penn State in title game after rivalry week showdowns?
The Big Ten championship game is set and ready. The good news for Oregon and Penn State is that the game is almost certainly not going to dictate appearances in the College Football Playoff as both teams look secure. That said, there is plenty on the line in the first Big Ten title game in the world of a 12-team College Football Playoff.
Big Ten championship scenarios
First, to reiterate, yes, both Oregon and Penn State are basically locked into the CFP, regardless of the outcome of Saturday's Big Ten title game. ESPN's FPI gives Oregon a 100% shot at the playoff and Penn State a 99.7% chance.
So yes, even Penn State, at 11-2, would have an abundantly solid CFP resume. After all, the only loss on the Nittany Lions' slate was against Ohio State, a team which is also on solid CFP ground. A second loss to Oregon wouldn't really diminish PSU's situation.
Of course, Oregon is 12-0. So everybody else in the discussion already has at least one loss, so there's absolutely no concern for the Ducks. They're certainly in the playoff.
Why the Big Ten championship game does matter
However, the Big Ten title game is key because the winner of the game will qualify for a first-round College Football Playoff bye. The loser of the game will have to play a first-round game. Those first-round games, scheduled for Dec. 20 and 21, would leave the loser of Oregon/PSU likely hosting another CFP team.
First off, a team playing a first-round game would have to win four games to win the Playoff, while the teams with byes will only have to win three games. But second, the timing, particularly for a team playing in a league title game, is a concern. If Oregon defeats Penn State, for instance, Penn State's path through the Playoff looks like this.
Dec. 7: Big Ten title game vs. Oregon
Dec. 20/21: CFP first-round game, likely hosting against teams potentially including Alabama or Clemson
Dec. 31/Jan. 1: CFP quarterfinal game, potentially against Boise State
Jan. 9/10: CFP semifinal game, possible rematch with Oregon
Jan. 20: CFP title game
On the other hand, the winning team has a gap from Dec. 7 to Dec. 31/Jan. 1 to prepare for a final three-game run.
A three-week break will allow the winner of the Big Ten title game to have time to heal up and regroup ahead of a demanding three-game run.
So, while there's no CFP question arising out of the Big Ten title, the game still carries massive long-term playoff significance for Oregon and Penn State.
What do you think of the Big Ten title matchup? Share your thoughts below in our comments section!