Boise State playoff chances: Can Broncos make 12-team CFP amid potential SEC bias?
On behalf of college football's army of would-be Davids ready to stun the sport's Goliaths, Boise State is hanging in the playoff hunt. The Broncos are currently projected for the final spot in the playoff. That said, six of the CFP rankings' top 15 teams are from the SEC. Will that league swallow up all the spots, or is there one left for Boise?
Boise State playoff chances
Boise State's resume
The 8-1 Broncos have been one of the most impressive teams in college football. Boise's only loss came against No. 1 Oregon in Week 2 by a 37-34 margin. The only other team to even give the Ducks a battle is No. 2 Ohio State.
Meanwhile, Boise bested No. 19 Washington State 45-24. The knock on Boise is that other than that, they haven't played a ton of top competition. They own one-score wins over UNLV and Nevada and won their opener 56-45 over Georgia Southern.
Still, at 8-1 and 5-0 in Mountain West play, Boise is No. 13 in the latest CFP rankings, which would jump them over No. 12 Georgia to claim the final playoff spot. The reasoning behind that jump lies in the playoff's ground rules.
Playoff rules on G5 teams
The playoff, perhaps as a result of being designed in a time when the Pac-12 hadn't completely dissolved, never explicitly confers any bids on G5 teams or conferences. It does, however, allow the top 5 ranked conference champions to claim automatic spots in the playoff.
In the real world, that means the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 can claim automatic spots for their champions. But the fifth league? Well, the Pac-12 didn't exist for 2024 CFP considerations, so it's down to the G5.
Boise is that team. At No. 13, they've got a clear edge. The only other non-power conference teams included in the CFP top 25 are Washington State (18), Army (24) and Tulane (25).
But here's the rub. Washington State – for 2024 anyway – is a team without a conference. Army and Tulane, even if either or both wins out, is too far back to jump Boise. Which gives the Broncos a big edge for that fifth automatic spot.
What is Boise's path?
Basically, Boise just needs to win the Mountain West. Colorado State is 4-0 and UNLV is 3-1. But Boise has already beaten UNLV and would have the tie-breaker over them. So, in essence, even a regular-season loss wouldn't harm the Broncos. That said, San Jose State and Wyoming don't seem too dangerous.
However, Boise does have to win the Mountain West title. As long as they win that, they'll be the top-ranked title winner outside of the power four leagues and can skate into the playoff.
Should Boise lose the title, they won't rank high enough to claim an at-large bid and the last spot would go to Army or Tulane or whoever the next highest-rated champion is.
What do you think of Boise's playoff path? Share your thoughts below in our comments section!