CFP National championship predictions: Steve Sarkisian's Texas could emerge as underdogs in SEC debut
The CFP is finally set, so start the predictions. College football fans have awaited a 12-team playoff as long as it has been a possibility. Now that it's here, how does the bracket shape up? Who should be favored? Who got a tough path? Here's a very early prediction of how the CFP might shape up.
CFP Predictions
Round 1 games
The Week 1 games are as intriguing as any in the playoffs. Frankly, the extra week off might not necessarily help the top four teams, and whichever teams can emerge from the first week of games with momentum must be watched. The most uneven game of the bunch is probably Texas vs. Clemson. The Tigers feel like they've been lucky to get here, and Texas should handle them easily by 17.
After that, the easiest game to pick is probably Notre Dame vs. Indiana. There's an abiding suspicion that the Hoosiers have been exposed and Notre Dame could roll on easily by 24. Penn State likewise seems to have a solid upper hand over SMU and would be a quick pick to advance by two scores.
The marquee game of Week 1 is Ohio State vs. Tennessee. The Buckeyes are early favorites by about 7.5 points, but Tennessee is probably being underrated. Given the struggles of Ohio State in its regular season finale, the Vols are probably the best-upset pick of the first week of games, with a field goal being the difference.
Quarterfinal picks
Texas will likely be a significant favorite over Arizona State. The Longhorns, as would be expected of a No. 5 seed (meaning the top team that didn't win one of the top four league crowns), get a pretty easy path. Texas by 20 in this one. Georgia is unlikely to have much trouble with Notre Dame. The Bulldogs have been well-seasoned in close games, and with an extra week to get healthy, they should advance fairly easily, winning by 17.
Penn State vs. Boise State is a little more interesting, but the Nittany Lions should be able to control the line of scrimmage enough to outlast Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos and advance with a 10-point win. That leaves Oregon against either Tennessee or OSU. As the Vols were the upset pick, Oregon should outlast UT by a touchdown and make the semifinals.
Semifinal predictions
Georgia has the best path in this bracket. The prospect of Penn State in a semifinal game isn't exactly daunting. The Bulldogs are solidly a couple of scores better than the Nittany Lions and are an easy choice to make the final by a 34-17 count.
Oregon and Texas, on the other hand, look like the game of the entire CFP. Oregon didn't get a very easy draw as the top seed. Texas seems primed, as a slight underdog, to give Oregon the brutal battle that the Ducks have somehow avoided all season long. Texas advances with a 31-28 win for an All-SEC final.
Championship prediction
Georgia and Texas are certainly familiar sights. The possibility of these teams playing three times in three months is pretty wild. But the X factor here is how incredibly difficult it is for a team to defeat another team three times in short succession.
The Bulldogs have pulled off two wins this year over Texas. The first was simple domination, and the second was a battle. Texas already showed significantly more familiarity with the Bulldogs and countered Georgia's moves much better than in the first meeting.
The third time is the charm for the Longhorns. Texas bests Georgia in the third match-up, which ends up being the only one that matters and wins the CFP. Texas 28, Georgia 27.
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