College Football Playoff projections: Predicting 12-team CFP field after Week 14 games ft. Texas Longhorns
With the regular season complete, the College Football Playoff field remains in flux. With conference championship games coming up, most of the field is basically settled. But there are still a few spots up in the air. Here's a rundown of who's in, out and still hoping.
Predicting College Football Playoff field
Teams in the Field
Oregon (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) is settled within the CFP field. Even if the Ducks lose the Big Ten title game, their spot is safe. They're just playing for the first-round bye, which comes with winning the league title.
On the other side, Penn State (11-1, 8-1) is basically in the same shape. ESPN's FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 99.7% shot at the playoff. Even an 11-2 PSU team should be fine. The Big Ten title game matters in terms of the first-round bye.
Texas (11-1, 7-1 SEC) is in the same situation in regard to the Southeastern Conference. An 11-2 Texas team would be just fine. The same is true for its conference title game opponent, Georgia (10-2, 6-2). Yes, a three-loss Georgia team isn't quite as desirable. But FPI gives the Bulldogs a 99.4% shot.
Notre Dame (11-1) is finished and are safely in the field. FPI puts it at 100%, and there's no real reason to think otherwise.
A trio of teams left out of the league title games are likewise on safe ground. Indiana (11-1, 8-1) missed the Big Ten title game, but their record has their position safe (98.9% shot per FPI). Similarly, Tennessee (10-2, 6-2) has a 98.1% chance. Ohio State (10-2, 7-2), despite the loss to Michigan, should still be good with a 96.3% chance at the playoff.
Guaranteed spots on the line
The winner of the SMU/Clemson game will get a spot. The Mustangs (11-1, 8-0 ACC) would have a competent argument even if they get upset by Clemson (9-3, 7-1). In fact, that's the Atlantic Coast Conference's two-bid situation in a nutshell. A 9-4 Clemson team wouldn't make the playoff and 10-2 Miami is probably stuck on the outside.
Boise State (11-1, 7-0 Mountain West) will lock up a spot with a Mountain West title game win. If UNLV (10-2, 6-1) upsets Boise, it might get the Rebels in or push the AAC's winner into the game. Boise has no such issues, and an 11-2 Boise State team might even have an argument to make.
Finally, the winner of the Big 12 title game will get a spot. Iowa State (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) and Arizona State (10-2, 7-2) are battling for the league title and the loser will be out of the playoff. That one is pretty simple.
The last spot
Another spot could be left after those games. That spot could be vacant if SMU beats Clemson and Boise takes care of business. So, who grabs the final spot, then? Alabama (9-3, 5-3 SEC) is a possibility, as is 10-2 Miami. 9-3 South Carolina might even creep into the equation, but that possible last spot will be the fulcrum of a million arguments.