Insider notes on Billy Napier's Florida future: Gainesville's growing tension, Gators' recruiting gamble and a brutal 2024 schedule
It’s not Miami-Florida State and all those great games from the past that impacted the national title. It’s not even Florida-Florida State, which usually caps off the regular season. Yet the rivalry between the Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators holds a lot of weight in the Sunshine State and is back on the schedule this season. Regardless of what’s being said in public, the weight of Saturday’s game will be an early indicator for the future of Gators coach Billy Napier.
Florida Gators football 2024 preview
It's been almost 15 years since the once-proud Gator program tasted success on a national level. One must return to the Urban Meyer era from 2005 to 2010 to witness when Florida had any real success. The program won two national championships and two conference titles during Meyer’s time with the Gators.
Since then, the program has consistently fallen short of its desired success, and a succession of coaches have passed through Gainesville, teasing Gators fans only to be shown the door ultimately.
Enter Billy Napier, the third-year head coach who was a somewhat surprising hire Florida plucked from Louisiana-Lafayette of the Sun Belt Conference.
Billy Napier's track record: Ragin' Cajuns glory vs Florida's choppy waters
Napier, derisively referred to as “Sun Belt Billy” by detractors, had plenty of success during his tenure with the Ragin’ Cajuns, three times leading the program to 10 wins or more. His two-year tenure with the Gators could not be any different, as Napier enters 2024 with a cumulative 11-14 record, including losing marks during both years at the helm of Florida. Last season ended with five consecutive losses, no bowl invitation for just the third time in 32 years, and several major changes in the coaching staff.
The pressure is on Napier, who must quickly turn it around, yet the third-year coach seems content going against the grain.
Billy Napier's freshman talent gamble paints a stark contrast to Miami's transfer-fueled roster
While programs such as Mississippi and this weekend’s foe Miami have relied heavily on the transfer portal to bolster the talent on their roster, Napier has primarily done it the old-fashioned way -- through recruitment. The Gators fielded an inordinate number of freshmen and sophomores last season with different degrees of success.
Several of the underclassmen who played with the first team showed tremendous ability, yet they struggled with consistency and lots of mistakes. While the Gators dipped their toe into the transfer portal during the offseason, the program is resting the immediate future on the improvement of young players it hopes will take the next step.
It's a big gamble and contrary to the route Miami chose.
Miami football's transfer-led 2024 roster preview
The Hurricanes could have as many as 10 transfers starting this weekend, some at critical positions. The Miami offense was completely reshaped by the dynamic talent they brought in.
Quarterback Cam Ward was plucked from Washington State after initially flirting with taking his game to the NFL. Damien Martinez comes from another Pac-12 program, as the running back played for Oregon State last season.
Possibly the best signing of all, receiver Sam Brown Jr., makes his way to Coral Gables from Houston. All three are playmakers with incredible talent and all three grade out as legitimate NFL prospects.
Miami vs Florida: A 'must-win' game for Billy Napier
This is no doubt this is a must-win game for Napier. The contest takes place in Gainesville, where the Gators have an NCAA-best, 34-game win streak in home openers. Taking it one step further, Florida has lost just two season openers since 1990.
Could Napier be fired if Florida loses to Miami in Week 1?
No, that won’t happen. Rather, the hostile talk of firing Napier that began late last season will continue at full throttle if they lose, and it could doom the remainder of the Gators’ season.
Why the Miami Game is just the beginning of a 'make-or-break' 2024 season for Napier
After the Miami contest, Florida has four winnable games, with Texas A&M being the toughest foe on the schedule.
Yet starting in the middle of October and continuing through the end of the regular season, the Gators face off against Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Mississippi, and Florida State. It is conceivable Florida could lose six of those seven games, which would mean an end to Napier’s reign in Gainesville.
Gainesville's growing concern
There are some close to the Gators program who tell me that regardless of the results this season, they hope Napier returns in 2025 to coach the talented players he’s recruited.
This of course assumes those players don’t receive large NIL deals and take their games elsewhere. Yet the majority of boosters and alumni will not stand for Napier turning in a third consecutive losing season, something that hasn’t happened under a single Gators coach since 1939.
Winning the game against Miami this weekend to open the season will go a long way to shutting down the talk of Sun Belt Billy being shown the door in Gainesville; or at least it will delay that conversation.