SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch, Week 10: Alabama back on track after dominating win against Missouri
The SEC's Playoff picture is incredibly complicated. College football's toughest league is virtually guaranteed to land multiple spots in the Playoff, and the ceiling could be very high.
But while Texas (7-1, 3-1) and Georgia (6-1, 4-1) are the most likely teams, it's unclear who will make the Playoff from the SEC. Here's the rundown.
SEC CFP bubble watch
Probably In
Georgia
After an early loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs have rebounded to be ranked No. 2 in the nation. That game and Tennessee will be the best challenges, but even a 10-2 Georgia team is very likely in the Playoff. ESPN gives them the league's best shot at 84.5% odds to make the field.
Texas
The Longhorns did lose to Georgia, but the No. 6 Horns have a solid path to the Playoff. They have yet to host Florida and Kentucky, but road games against Arkansas and Texas A&M are better tests. Even a 10-2 Texas team is likely Playoff bound, and ESPN's FPI gives them a 75% spot at making the field.
A good chance
Tennessee
The No. 7 Vols have played their way into the Playoff conversation despite a loss to Arkansas. Tennessee (6-1, 3-1) does have to go to Georgia in a few weeks, but other than a road game at Vandy, the rest of the schedule is relatively easy. UT has over 2-to-1 odds to make the Playoff, but that win over Alabama looks pretty impressive.
Alabama
The Tide is ranked No. 14 after losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, but a recent win over Missouri jumped Alabama back into the picture. With two league losses, a title isn't in the cards but if Alabama can win at LSU next weekend with a 10-2 season, it is likely and could end in the CFP. ESPN projects them at a Playoff coin flip, with a 52% chance of making the field.
Texas A&M
The last team without an SEC loss is the Aggies. They've got games ahead at South Carolina and Auburn, but the home game with Texas to end the regular season is the real challenge here. If A&M (7-1, 5-0) wins, they will likely play for the SEC title against Georgia. The No. 10 Aggies are just under coin flip odds, at a 47% chance of the Playoff.
A declining chance
LSU
The Tigers (6-2, 3-1) had a single league loss last week at Texas A&M. They host Alabama this week in a game that could drop them out of Playoff contention or jump them back into it. LSU's 21% Playoff shot probably won't shape up, but it does give the Tigers a running chance to reach their Playoff goals.
Ole Miss
The Rebels (6-2, 2-2) have already lost league games to Kentucky and LSU, so they're probably out of the SEC race. The No. 19 Rebels still have a home game against Georgia, and a 6-2 Ole Miss team could make some Playoff noise. ESPN gives them a 19% chance at the Playoff, which isn't ideal but means they're still involved.
Long shot
Missouri
The Tigers have fallen out of the top 25 after losing league games in October by 31 points (to Texas A&M) and 34 points (to Alabama). The rest of the schedule is weak, with a road game at South Carolina and a home game against Arkansas as the biggest challenges.
But a 6-2 Missouri team wouldn't have any marquee wins or a pair of bad losses. That gives them the 7.7% Playoff shot that ESPN indicates. It would take a lot of chaos and something to jump-start some momentum for the Tigers.
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