Tanking and QB Caleb Williams. Examining the situation.
Caleb Williams is unique. The reigning Heisman winner has generational talent that NFL teams have been salivating over for years. He's a dangerous runner that also has an incredible arm.
Williams' stats from the 2022 season, his first with USC, are absurd. He was easily the best player in college football. His rushing numbers dipped compared to his year with Oklahoma, but he accomplished so much more through the air.
A great quarterback changes franchises forever; look at Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. Caleb Williams is supposed to be in that stratosphere talent-wise.
The 2024 NFL Draft will be the first that Williams is eligible for, and he's expected to declare. Considering he's projected to be the first overall selection, it's the smart move. Teams intentionally losing during the 2023 NFL regular season to nab that number-one pick may also occur.
347 days until the #Raiders draft Caleb Williams https://t.co/ovqFJRw6iH
Potential Caleb Williams Tankers
Tanking is less prevalent in the NFL than in leagues like the NBA, but it's still possible. Let's examine some teams that may pull out all the stops so that Caleb Williams will play in their uniform.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals finishing with the top overall pick may not be due to tanking. Arizona is projected to be one of the NFL's worst teams this season, along with owning the Houston Texans' first-round pick. Still, if the team doesn't start strong, don't expect a concentrated effort for them to win games later in the year.
Caleb Williams winding up as an Arizona Cardinal is a safe bet as the season approaches. Kyler Murray's contract complicates things a bit, but Murray only ended up as a Cardinal because the team had no issue moving on from Josh Rosen early.
Playing in a tough division and with a brand-new front office, Williams could be the centerpiece of Arizona's new era. However, it's doubtful a new coaching staff will want to cultivate a culture of intentionally losing, especially when Williams is realistic without tanking.
Washington Commanders
A much more nuanced case exists with the Washington Commanders. The team is fresh off an 8-8-1 season and has a defense that can compete with anyone. Tanking with their current roster would make little sense.
The opportunity may be golden for the new ownership group, though. Washington plays in a division that's tough enough to disguise any tanking realistically. Quarterback is a position of need, as this year's starter battle is between an inexperienced Sam Howell and a journeyman in Jacoby Brissett.
Again, the biggest issue with this concept is the precedent it would set for a new regime. Dan Snyder's tenure as Washington's owner had many problems in every way imaginable. Losing frequently was one of them, something this new group is likely avoiding in every way possible.
Tanking isn't worth it in the NFL
Despite the significance of a great quarterback, which many expect Caleb Williams to be, he's only one player. There are ten more on offense at any given point, and if they need to be more competent, Williams will only get the team so far.
It's different from the NBA, where one player can drag a team deep into the playoffs. Williams still needs to guide his college teams to a conference championship. He may be a lock for the top pick already but don't expect teams to do anything too crazy for Caleb Williams.