Texas Longhorns playoff projections: 3 reasons why Steve Sarkisian's side will struggle in SEC expansion
For fans, the Texas Longhorns playoff projections are the story. After all, a season ago, the Horns made the playoffs and retain many of their best players. But here's the other side of it.
With a move into the SEC, nothing is guaranteed for Steve Sarkisian's squad. In fact, it's entirely plausible - maybe even likely - that Texas is about to get a rude awakening. Here are three reasons why UT will struggle.
Texas Longhorns playoff projections: 3 reasons why Texas will struggle
#1 That schedule will be challenging
A year ago, Texas played four ranked teams in their 12-game regular season. Two of those four teams were then ranked No. 24 and No. 25 in the nation. It'll be a new world in the SEC. The Texas Longhorns' playoff projections aren't taking into account a 2024 schedule.
Texas plays Michigan on the road in Week 2, which mirrors their Week 2 game at Alabama a year ago. But instead of a conference slate that includes a single team ranked 23rd or better, Texas will face Oklahoma (which was the only team ranked higher than 23rd a year ago). They would then take on Georgia, Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M.
Texas has no real exposure to the depth of schedule they'll face in the SEC. It's going to be a brave new world and one that Texas simply can't have anticipated. The Big 12 was a high-octane league that looked good on paper, but didn't win very many meaningful games. The SEC will be very, very different.
#2 The secondary could be vulnerable
A year ago, Texas jumped from 8-5 to 12-2. While the Longhorns' defense took a step forward, from allowing 21.6 points per game to 18.9, they did give up 254 passing yards per game.
Included in that season were five games in which they allowed 300+ yards through the air. That included a run of three straight games, in which Texas escaped with three-point wins over Kansas State and TCU.
While the Big 12 had more than its share of big-time offenses, it's worth noting that Texas ended up losing in the playoffs because they ran into Washington. The latter team threw for 430 yards against them while scoring 37 points. SEC offenses will be keeping an eye on that secondary.
#3 Last year's personnel losses are bigger than they seem
Texas does return a majority of its personnel. But the best players on Texas' team are now all in the NFL. The Horns lost their top five receivers, their leading rusher, their leading tackler and pass rusher, and two of their co-leaders in interceptions.
While Texas returns plenty of players, the players who led the jump from 5 to 8 to 12 wins are largely gone. Texas has plenty of capable candidates to replace them, but the shift in conference and the shift in personnel both are a lot to overcome at once.
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