2023 World Cup: Complicated qualification scenarios explained
The 2023 World Cup is 30 matches old now. However, given the round-robin format, where each team plays the other nine sides once in the league stage, none of the 10 participating nations are guaranteed a semi-final berth as of now.
Hosts Team India are best placed to finish in the top four, and possibly occupy the No. 1 position at the conclusion of the 2023 World Cup league stage. All teams have played six matches each, with the Men in Blue being the only undefeated side in the competition. They have 12 points to their name, with a net run rate of +1.405.
Looking at the top four after 30 matches in the 2023 World Cup, South Africa are second with 10 points and a net run rate of +2.032. New Zealand and Australia are third and fourth, respectively, with eight points each. The Kiwis (+1.232) have a better net run rate than the Aussies (+0.970). Afghanistan are a surprise fifth with three wins and a run rate of (-0.718).
With some complicated permutations and combinations, teams outside the top five can also climb the points ladder and end up clinching a 2023 World Cup semi-final berth. Here’s a lowdown.
How many points do teams need to be guaranteed a place in the 2023 World Cup semi-finals?
Any team reaching 14 points will be assured of a place in the semi-finals. This is because none of the teams outside the top four presently can reach 14 points. Afghanistan are on six points. If they win all their three remaining matches, they will finish on 12.
Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands are on four points each and can finish with a maximum of 10 points. Bangladesh and England are on two points each, so the maximum they can reach is eight.
How many teams have been eliminated from the semi-final race?
Mathematically, all 10 teams are still in contention. Practically, though, the chances of Bangladesh and England finishing in the top four are very slim, while Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands also had a tough road ahead with regard to their qualification hopes.
Afghanistan are currently in fifth position. If they win all their three remaining matches, they will reach 12, but two of the three matches are against Australia and South Africa. Even if they win all three games, they are not still guaranteed a place in the top four. With New Zealand and Australia on eight points each, it could come down to the net run rate scenario if the Kiwis and the Aussies also finish on 12.
Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands need to win all their three remaining games and also boost their net run rate. Doing so will take them to 10 points. For them to have any chance of finishing in the top four, the likes of New Zealand, Australia, and Afghanistan must not cross 10 points.
Also, South Africa are on 10 top points, so if they lose all three games, they will also finish on 10, making the scenario even more complicated.
Speaking of Bangladesh and England, they need to win all their remaining three games by significant margins to finish with eight points. But that alone will not be enough.
They will need New Zealand and Australia to lose their three remaining games by large margins so that they stay on eight and their net run rate also gets affected. Also, they will have to pray that Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Netherlands do not cross eight points.
Can India still finish outside the top four?
Mathematically yes, although that’s a very remote possibility. India are currently on 12 points from six games - the only undefeated side in the competition. If they win one of their remaining three games, they will be guaranteed a qualification berth for the semis, with 14 points.
However, even if they lose all their three remaining matches and finish on 12 points, they can still finish in the top four with a better net run rate than other teams with the same number of points.
What about South Africa, Australia and New Zealand?
South Africa would want to win two of their remaining three matches to finish with 14 points and assure a semis berth for the 2023 World Cup. Even if they will only one of their remaining matches, the Proteas can still finish in the top four.
Afghanistan are the only other side outside the top four that can end with 12 points. It will then come down to the net run rate scenario. If South Africa lose their remaining three games, they could still be knocked out. In such a scenario, they will be stuck on 10 points. Afghanistan can pip them if they win their remaining three matches.
If Afghanistan lose one of their three remaining games and Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Netherlands win all three, they will join South Africa on 10 points, with the net run rate coming into play.
New Zealand have slipped to third position with two consecutive losses. If they win their three remaining matches, they will finish with 14 points. However, if they lose one of the three matches, they will finish on 12 points, again bringing Afghanistan into the picture.
The Kiwis could be in trouble if they lose two of their remaining three 2023 World Cup matches. They will then end on 10 points and will need a superior net run rate if it comes down to multiple teams finishing on 10 points.
Like New Zealand, Australia also have eight points from six games. They have gained momentum with four successive wins. Victories in the remaining three games will confirm a top-four finish for them.
If they win two of their remaining three matches, they will end on 12 points, which should also be enough if the run rate is in their favor. Just like the Kiwis, It could get trickier for them if they lose two of their three games and end on 10 points.
What is in Australia’s favor though is the fact that their remaining three 2023 World Cup matches are against England, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh. Given their current form, they will back themselves to win all three.