2023 World Cup: Predicting where each team will finish in the group stage
We are just a day away from the World Cup taking over the cricketing world, enticing each and every fan to gorge on the competition before reaching its conclusion on November 19 in Ahmedabad.
Last-minute preparations, of course, are in order for several teams as they battle injuries and rummage to find the perfect combination. For fans and keen watchers, though, this is a time to indulge in those pre-tournament predictions – wild, weird, warranted – all of those count.
Getting them right to the tee is very difficult (those who have done this before will testify). But if you are not predicting stuff for an ICC event that will ebb and flow at every juncture, what are you even doing?!
So, here it is – a look at how the teams will finish post the culmination of the World Cup group stage. Remember, these are these sides’ final positions, and there might yet be time for knockout predictions later in the piece.
World Cup 2023 Predictions
#10 Netherlands
The Netherlands have done exceedingly well to get here. They stunned Scotland and the West Indies to book their spot and showcased plenty of big-game temperament while doing so.
At the World Cup, though, things will only get tougher, and while the Dutch will certainly not die wondering, making massive waves in this 10-team tournament might be a bridge too far.
Much of that is down to how fragile their batting seems. Even at the World Cup Qualifier, their top order blew hot and cold. Captain Scott Edwards and middle-order batter Teja Nidamanuru dug them out of trouble at times. But if they find themselves in similar situations at the World Cup, they might not be able to recover.
Their bowling, with the addition of Roelof van der Merwe, looks sturdy if not world-beating. If the surfaces provide help, they might be able to restrict teams to middling totals. But again, it comes down to how many runs their batters would be able to score, and if they can chase down totals at the World Cup.
Effort, enthusiasm, and zeal will not be a problem for the Dutch, who are playing their first ODI World Cup since 2011. Quality, however, could be a bit of an issue, and while they will always remain capable of springing the odd upset, they might have to consign themselves to a place at the foot of the ladder this time out.
#9 Afghanistan
Akin to the Netherlands, Afghanistan also have batting quandaries to solve. Ibrahim Zadran has taken to ODI cricket like a duck to water. Rahmanullah Gurbaz, however, has been a lot more inconsistent. Rahmat Shah, too, has also not delivered on the early promise he showed at the beginning of his ODI career.
Quite often, the lack of runs from the top puts pressure on Afghanistan’s middle order, which is capable of mounting a comeback but cannot always be expected to perform salvaging acts.
Their batting line-up, in general, has also encountered snags when trying to work out the perfect tempo for 50-over cricket. On some days, they blow the opposition away as Sri Lanka found out in the warm-up fixture. On other days, even rotating strike becomes an issue.
Their bowling, it could be argued, is among the top-five attacks at the World Cup (with their spin-bowling quartet perhaps the best). Rashid Khan has oodles of experience playing in India, as does Mohammad Nabi. Mujeeb Ur Rahman, especially if the pitches turn, could be a handful. Noor Ahmad is the latest spin-bowling sensation to emerge from the country and could cause a ripple.
Their World Cup games against New Zealand and Pakistan, which will be held in Chennai, could see this quartet play a massive role too. If their batters and pacers can back them up, though, remains to be seen, and that is where they might come unstuck.
Due to the variety in their bowling attack, they will cause teams headaches at different junctures. Unfortunately, that might not be enough to guarantee a top-four berth.
#8 Bangladesh
Bangladesh have been shrouded by controversy, and the World Cup has not even begun. That, to an extent, sums things up and explains the predicament they find themselves in – a predicament that they have, in many ways, brought upon themselves.
The Tamim Iqbal row has been splashed across all the back pages, with captain Shakib Al Hasan also not mincing his words on the topic. Shakib, who is also their best player, has picked up a niggle too, and it remains unclear if he will be fully fit for their first World Cup game against Afghanistan on Saturday.
Such a manic sequence of events, though, has a silver lining – that things cannot get any worse, and that the only way is upwards. It could also galvanize those in the squad, for they could now have even more to prove, especially to shut out the noise.
Bangladesh did that well against Sri Lanka in their first World Cup warm-up game. Their top order, comprising Liton Das, Najmul Hossain Shanto, Tanzid Hasan, and Towhid Hridoy brings verve and effervescence to the batting unit.
Mehidy Hasan Miraz has also done his bit whenever promoted up the order – the most recent example being against England at Guwahati.
The middle order then has captain Shakib, Mushfiqur Rahim and Mahmudullah, meaning that experience will not be a problem. Each of them is a good player of spin too, and that should hold the Tigers in good stead at the World Cup.
The bowling attack, especially if the pitches are sluggish, could be tough to get away. However, if the tracks are conducive to stroke-play, they might miss genuine wicket-taking options, with Mustafizur Rahman not as penetrative as he once was, leaving Taskin Ahmed to do the heavy lifting.
On their day, Bangladesh can beat anyone, as they showed at the Asia Cup by getting the better of India. How many of those days will they have at the World Cup, though? Well, there could be a few, but probably not enough to make their fans realistically dream of a semi-final spot.
#7 Sri Lanka
Well, where to start? Predicting what Sri Lanka will do on any given day has become as difficult as predicting the weather (yes, climate change is real, folks).
When things are clicking into place, they will be the most exciting team in the world. On some other occasions, they will get blown away – like Afghanistan and Bangladesh have done in the warm-up games, and like India famously did at the Asia Cup final not long ago.
Batting, as it was at that Asia Cup, still remains a concern, despite Kusal Mendis being in smashing form. Pathum Nissanka and Dimuth Karunaratne add solidity but if Kusal Perera is fit, only one of them might start. Charith Asalanka has been their clutch player at times, but far too often, Sri Lanka leave him with too much to do. Oh, and we are not even getting into the wretched run of scores captain Dasun Shanaka has put together.
Their matters have not been helped by the injury to talismanic leg-spinner Wanindu Hasaranga. Maheesh Theekshana, if he regains fitness himself, will have to shoulder a chunk of the burden, considering Dilshan Madushanka, Dunith Wellalage and Matheesha Pathirana are relatively inexperienced in this format.
Kasun Rajitha and Lahiru Kumara, if they hit their straps, can run through batting units but again it comes down to how regularly they might be able to do it, especially under pressure at the World Cup.
Thus, this World Cup, for this set of players, might just have come a year or so early. Sri Lanka will push teams close but they might not be able to do so frequently enough to have a real shot at the top four.
Entertainment, whenever they are out playing, will not be a problem. The end product might be.
#6 Pakistan
Two months ago, Pakistan were deemed one of the favourites to win the World Cup. Their top order looked ominous. Haris Rauf, Naseem Shah and Shaheen Shah Afridi were blowing teams away. Their middle order had the requisite firepower, and they seemed primed to have a tilt at the biggest prize in ODI cricket.
Two months, though, is a long time in Pakistan cricket, and things, unsurprisingly, have changed.
Naseem has been ruled out of the entirety of the World Cup, leaving them short on fast-bowling power. Rauf is also coming back from a niggle that sidelined him at the Asia Cup, with Shaheen also losing a bit of his rhythm in recent weeks.
To offset it, they have recalled Hasan Ali, a vital part of their 2017 Champions Trophy success. However, his ODI returns, whenever he has played lately (which has not been often anyway), have not been great.
The other problem is that Fakhar Zaman has encountered a barren run. Abdullah Shafique can replace him at the top of the order but in Fakhar’s absence, Pakistan lack oomph and run the risk of having four batters who bat at a similar tempo in their top four.
This bunch has also not played a lot of cricket in India, with Pakistan having last played a competitive fixture in India in 2016. Adaptation, thus, could also be a bit of a sticky point, especially in the absence of one of their most potent pacers.
With Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan around, they will always enter games at the World Cup with a chance to win it. Plus, Iftikhar Ahmed, if he gets on a roll, can pound the opposition into submission too.
But do Pakistan have enough to outlast six teams and make the semi-final of the World Cup? Maybe not…
#5 South Africa
The last time South Africa played an ODI World Cup, they finished seventh, winning just three of their nine games. In 2023, though, they seem better equipped to cause a bigger flutter, and perhaps even challenge for the top four.
That is largely down to how power-packed their batting unit is. Quinton de Kock remains a match-winner at the top. Captain Temba Bavuma complements him beautifully, with Rassie van der Dussen a prolific run-scorer in this format. Aiden Markram has also found his feet in ODI cricket and has morphed into a solid middle-order batter, capable of alternating between grafting and taking down the opposition.
South Africa’s X-Factor, though, could be Heinrich Klaasen, who has established himself as one of the best (if not the best) hitters of spin on the planet. David Miller can also increase the scoring rate against spin and this particular pair could offset the Proteas’ slight lack of batting depth.
The bowling, however, could be a cause for concern. Anrich Nortje, who is often their enforcer, has been ruled out. Kagiso Rabada has not been in great form recently, and the likes of Lungi Ngidi and Marco Jansen can be expensive. Although Keshav Maharaj offers solidity and control with his left-arm spin, Tabraiz Shamsi, a left-arm wrist-spinner, remains a bit of a wildcard, especially against line-ups that play spin well.
Because of their batting might, there will be games where the likes of de Kock, Klaasen, Markram and Miller obliterate oppositions and give their bowlers a big enough cushion. Doing that across nine games, however, is not easy and for that reason, the Proteas might just miss the cut.
#4 New Zealand
Here we are again. New Zealand have arrived at the World Cup with little fanfare.
One of their premier spin-bowling all-rounders (Michael Bracewell) has been ruled out altogether. There is a question mark over how much of a role their captain and best batter (Kane Williamson, for those guessing) will play. Devon Conway does not have an outright opening partner (although Will Young is a very good option), and Tim Southee is recovering from a broken thumb.
So, New Zealand has to qualify for the semi-final, at least, right?
Well, they almost always do at these ICC events. And while there seem to be a ton of problems, they might also have solutions in their ranks.
Rachin Ravindra has been touted as the next big thing for a while. His time might have finally come. In the series away to England, he was impressive with both the bat and ball. Against Pakistan in the warm-up fixture, he was sensational at the top of the order, and he seems best suited to bat at the top of the order.
Another batter to keep an eye on at this World Cup is Mark Chapman, a highly improved player of spin, who can sweep, reverse-sweep and has nimble footwork. He polished off the run-chase against Pakistan and has been in a rich vein of form.
Daryl Mitchell has also taken his game to another level lately, and with him, Chapman, Tom Latham and Glenn Phillips (possibly) making up the middle order, the Kiwis have plenty of dexterity, experience and firepower.
The big news on the bowling front is that Trent Boult is back. With most places in India expected to be humid in October, he will get swing (not that he needs much anyway). Matt Henry has slotted into the bowling unit seamlessly, while Lockie Ferguson remains a point-of-difference bowler. Ish Sodhi and Mitchell Santner might not be dubbed world-class, but they seem to always turn up at these ICC events, giving the Black Caps incision through the middle overs.
Thus, they seem to have the resources to not just adapt to these conditions but also make the most of them. They might be a little short on star names, but that has never been an issue for them. Might not be an issue this time either.
#3 England
The defending champions have not changed much since their triumph in 2019, both in terms of personnel and approach. Most of the star cast that helped them win the title in 2019 is still around.
There was a possibility that the Player of the Match of the final aka Ben Stokes would not be there to defend England’s crown but that fear has since been vanquished. And as far as the approach is concerned, England have perhaps decided to go harder under Jos Buttler.
Speaking of Buttler, he arrives having guided England to their second T20 World Cup crown less than a year ago. His captaincy credentials are well-established, and there is no doubting his ability as a middle-order match-winner.
In fact, England’s squad is glittered with match-winners. Jonny Bairstow is arguably their greatest-ever ODI opener. Dawid Malan averages more than 60. Harry Brook is a generational talent. Liam Livingstone and Moeen Ali can annihilate any bowling attack. And Stokes is, well, Stokes.
Their bowling also seems in fine fettle, despite the obvious absence of Jofra Archer. Mark Wood is bowling as quick as he has ever done. In Gus Atkinson, England have a pacer who can bowl just as rapidly. David Willey, Reece Topley and Sam Curran maximise the left-arm angle, while Chris Woakes remains a threat with the new ball.
England’s lynchpin, though, could be 35-year-old Adil Rashid. The leg-spinner has often flown under the radar but has almost always played a pivotal role in England’s biggest white-ball successes. That should not be too different in India, where spin is expected to play a major part. Moeen, having played tons of IPL matches, should also be a proper wicket-taking option on these shores.
The only problem they might encounter is injuries. While they have enough in the squad to offset it, the long nature of the group stage, plus how cavalier their brand of cricket is, could mean that they stumble a couple of times in the round-robin phase of the World Cup.
Nothing to impact their qualification. But just enough to rid them of a top-two finish.
#2 Australia
It has been more than eight years since Australia last won the ODI World Cup. That number may seem inflated because, well, World Cups happen once every four years, but it highlights how a team that has won five times previously, would be chomping at the bit to reaffirm their status as the premier ODI side on the planet.
On paper, there are not many teams that can rival Australia. Even with Travis Head absent at the start, they have a devastating opening pair in David Warner and Mitchell Marsh. Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith know how to keep things ticking, while Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis and Cameron Green (to an extent) can rip any bowling unit to shreds. Josh Inglis, if he is given a go, is also an archetypal 360-degree batter, capable of hitting around the dial.
Their bowling attack needs no introduction either. Mitchell Starc is a bona-fide World Cup legend. Josh Hazlewood keeps hitting that nagging hard length just outside off and Pat Cummins, in his first World Cup as captain, can extract assistance off the most docile surfaces.
Spin might seem a bit of a weakness, considering they have opted for just one specialist spinner in Adam Zampa. But when the spinner is that good, and when the second possible option is Maxwell, who is really tough to line up, Australia seem to have that base covered too.
The only impediment could be the start of their campaign – away to Chennai against India. They have the resources to topple India (as they did earlier in the year), but a string of injuries has meant that their ideal playing eleven has not played as much cricket together as, say, India.
That might just pull them down, although they will, because of the players they have, still finish in the top two. And probably become the team no one wants to face when the semi-final dawns.
#1 India
India have been in the so-near-yet-so-far boat very often in recent World Cups (across formats). As far as the ODI iteration is concerned, they have made at least the semi-final since the 2011 edition, but have made the final only once – when they won it 12 years ago.
During this stretch, the Indian team has been at the centre of numerous social media memes. When a nation as richly resourced as India fail to win an ICC trophy for 10 years, some of that criticism is warranted, but this time, it just feels different.
Much of that is because India will be playing this ODI World Cup at home, where they have an almost impregnable record. Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill have been irresistible as an opening pair. Virat Kohli’s appetite for runs has only burgeoned, and their middle order has plenty of options – emphasized by the fact that two of Ishan Kishan, Shreyas Iyer and Suryakumar Yadav might be on the bench at all times.
The big point of difference, however, is Jasprit Bumrah, fit and firing on all cylinders. If he can last the entirety of the tournament, India will have a bowler, not just capable of restricting the opposition but also bundling them out swiftly. Mohammed Siraj has experience of doing the latter too, having demolished Sri Lanka lately. Mohammed Shami, who might feature a little more intermittently, is also in decent form and picked up a five-wicket haul against Australia at Mohali towards the end of September.
In the spin-bowling department, Kuldeep Yadav has rediscovered the magic that made him the toast of the nation. Ravichandran Ashwin can also be relied upon in helpful conditions, and Ravindra Jadeja is bowling as well as he has ever done in this format.
Buccaneering batters, penetrative spinners, skilful fast bowlers – India have it all. During the group stage of any World Cup, it is often the quality throughout the squad that stands out – something that India have in abundance.
If they go all the way is a different debate altogether, but as far as the first nine games of the World Cup are concerned, well, there is not a lot that could stop this Indian juggernaut.