2023 World Cup semi-finals: Qualification scenarios for Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan
The race to the knockout stages of the ongoing ICC men's ODI World Cup 2023 is in its final stages now. With all teams completing six of their nine league-stage matches, every game is a must-win from here on.
The 13th edition of the World Cup has been extremely exciting given that none of the 10 teams have qualified for the semis, and none of the teams have been eliminated mathematically from the tournament. But, one could practically say that Team India have largely sealed their spot, while England and Bangladesh will have nothing but pride to play for in their remaining fixtures.
Having said that, teams including Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka are fighting hard to somehow enter the final four. Although all three teams have endured a start-stop campaign so far, none of them are ruled out just yet.
On that note, let's take a look at the qualification scenario for all three teams battling for a spot in the knockouts of the 2023 ODI World Cup.
#1 How can Afghanistan qualify for the semi-finals?
![Afghanistan players celebrating vs SL [Getty Images]](https://statico.sportskeeda.com/editor/2023/10/e26c3-16986868001264-1920.jpg?w=500)
A high-flying Afghanistan team have been wonderful to watch in the ongoing tournament so far. After beating the likes of England and Pakistan, they thumped Sri Lanka in the recently concluded encounter in Pune on Monday.
With their emphatic victory, Afghanistan have done themselves a huge favor. Among the aforementioned three teams, they have the best chances of qualifying for the knockouts.
With six points after as many games, they are currently sitting fifth in the points table. Above them are Australia and New Zealand, with eight points each. Afghanistan are set to play against the Netherlands, Australia, and South Africa in their remaining fixtures and can finish with a maximum of 12 points.
Even after winning all their remaining games, the Afghans are not guaranteed a spot in the final four, as they would then need one of Australia (8 points) or New Zealand (8 points) to lose, ideally, two of their three remaining games.
If Afghanistan end up winning all their games and Australia and New Zealand also win two of their three games, then the team with the best net run rate will go through.
Losing any one of their remaining matches of the group stage would place Afghanistan at a massive risk of losing out on qualification. Losing against Australia or South Africa would be the end of the story for the resilient Afghans.
Current standing: 5th with 6 points (-0.718)
Chances to qualify: 32 percent
#2 How can Sri Lanka sneak into the final 4?
![Sri Lanka players celebrating [Getty Images].](https://statico.sportskeeda.com/editor/2023/10/90a65-16986875929208-1920.jpg)
Sri Lanka needed to grab the two crucial points against Afghanistan. However, they ended up with a heavy seven-wicket loss in Pune.
The 1996 winners are placed sixth in the standings but have just four points at a net run rate of -0.275. Sri Lanka have won games against the Netherlands and England so far. They will play India, Bangladesh, and New Zealand in their next three games, respectively.
It is needless to say all three games are must-win for the Lankans. Moreover, they are highly dependent on the other results to go their way. The maximum points Sri Lanka can attain are 10.
Even though Australia and New Zealand are already sitting in the top four with eight points each, Sri Lanka would need neither of the two Oceania countries to win more than one match. Apart from this, Sri Lanka would also want that Afghanistan don't go past 10 points.
Current standing: 6th with 4 points (-0.275)
Chances to qualify: 7 percent
#3 Are Pakistan still alive in the ODI World Cup?
![Babar Azam and his team leaving the field after the loss vs South Africa [Getty Images]](https://statico.sportskeeda.com/editor/2023/10/7b390-16986884077244-1920.jpg)
Pakistan's chances to feature in the semi-finals took a massive hit after their three consecutive losses against India, Australia, and South Africa. Having said that, there is still a glimmer of hope within Pakistani fans as they are still mathematically alive in the tournament.
Similar to Sri Lanka, the Men in Green have only four points in their account after six matches in the tournament. Thus, they cannot afford any more hiccups in the league stage.
Assuming Pakistan win their remaining three matches, they will finish with 10 points. Babar Azam and company will hope that both India (12 points) and South Africa (10 points) end up in the top two spots, while Australia (8 points) and New Zealand (8) go on to lose at least two of their remaining three matches.
Furthermore, Pakistan must hope that neither Afghanistan nor Sri Lanka end up with 10 points.
Current standing: 7th with 4 points (-0.387)
Chances to qualify: 7 percent