2024 T20 World Cup qualification scenarios: How can New Zealand, Pakistan, England, USA and Sri Lanka qualify for Super 8?
West Indies have become the first side from Group C to progress to the Super 8 round of the ICC Men's 2024 T20 World Cup. They did so by beating New Zealand by 13 runs in match number 26 of the ICC Men's 2024 T20 World Cup at the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba, Trinidad on Thursday, June 13.
New Zealand won the toss and opted to bowl first in the match. Trent Boult starred with 3-16, while Tim Southee and Lockie Ferguson claimed two wickets each. Sherfane Rutherford, however, slammed 68* off 39 balls, hitting two fours and six sixes to lift West Indies to 149-9 in their 20 overs.
In the chase, the Kiws were held to 136-9 as Alzarri Joseph starred with 4-19, while Gudakesh Motie claimed 3-25. Glenn Phillips top-scored for New Zealand with a valiant 40 off 33 balls. However, his effort went in vain.
Following their second loss in as many matches in the 2024 T20 World Cup, New Zealand find themselves in an extremely tricky situation with regard to Super 8 qualification. On that note, let's take a look at the qualification scenarios for the Kiwis and a few of the other sides, who are still in contention, but face a challenging road ahead.
New Zealand (0 points from 2 matches)
New Zealand are languishing in last position in Group C, with two losses from two matches. Before their defeat against West Indies, they went down to Afghanistan by a huge margin of 84 runs. With the Windies having qualified for the Super 8 round, only one more team from Group C can now qualify.
Afghanistan are best-placed to qualify for the Super 8 round of the 2024 T20 World Cup, with four points and a net run rate of +5.225. The Kiwis can only qualify if Afghanistan are knocked out. For New Zealand to finish in the top two, they need to win both their remaining group games by huge margins and hope that Afghanistan also suffer defeats in their remaining two matches, one of which is against Papua New Guinea.
As per ESPNCricinfo, if Afghanistan lose their last two group matches in the 2024 T20 World Cup by a combined margin of 120 runs, the Kiwis will have to win theirs by a combined margin of 187 [This is assuming teams batting first score 160].
If Afghanistan win one of their remaining two games or move up to five points in case of a washout, New Zealand, who can reach a maximum of four points, will be knocked out.
Pakistan (2 points from 3 matches)
After two losses, Pakistan opened their account in the 2024 T20 World Cup with a seven-wicket win over Canada. With India having already qualified for the Super 8 round from Group A, Pakistan can only make it to the top two if they upstage USA.
For Babar Azam and co. to book a place in the Super 8, they will need to win their last group match and hope that USA lose theirs. That way both teams will finish on four points each. But with a net run rate of +0.191, Pakistan will qualify ahead of United States (+0.127) in this scenario.
In case of a washout in either the Pakistan vs Ireland or United States vs Ireland match, USA will qualify for the Super 8, while Pakistan will be knocked out.
United States (4 points from 3 matches)
United States are in second position in Group A, with four points from three games. If they beat Ireland in their last group match in Florida on June 14, they will qualify for the Super 8 round, knocking out Pakistan.
Even a washout will be enough for them to qualify for the next round as they will move up to five points, while Pakistan can reach a maximum of four points. The US will also qualify if they lose to Ireland, but the Pakistan-Ireland match is washed out. However, if both Pakistan and the US are tied on four points, the former will progress to the Super 8 on the basis of a superior net run rate.
England (1 point from 2 matches)
Following the washout against Scotland and the loss to Australia, England's chances of progressing to the Super 8 from Group B have been severely dented. Australia have already booked their spot, with three wins from three games.
For England to qualify, they will need to win their last two matches by big margins and also hope that Scotland, who are on five points, go down to Australia. Scotland, however, have an impressive net run rate of +2.164, while England's run rate is -1.800.
If Scotland suffer a 20-run defeat against Australia chasing 161, England will have to win their last two matches by a combined margin of 94 runs to surpass Scotland on run rate. Also, even if one of England's two remaining games is washed out, they will be knocked out of the Super 8 race.
Sri Lanka (1 point from 3 matches)
With just one point from three games, Sri Lanka only have a slim mathematical chance of progressing to the Super 8 round from Group D. A win against Netherlands in their last group game will take them to three points. Sri Lanka then need multiple results to go their way.
The Bangladesh vs Netherlands match in Kingstown needs to be washed out so that both teams are on three points each. South Africa then need to beat Nepal, while Nepal need to get the better of Bangladesh.
In the above scenario, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Netherlands and Nepal will all end on three points each. The net run rate will then decide who progresses to the Super 8 round.