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2024 T20 World Cup Super 8 Group 1 qualification scenarios: How can Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh qualify for semifinals?

India beat Australia by 24 runs in their 2024 T20 World Cup Group 1 Super 8 match at the Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium in Gros Islet, St Lucia on Monday, June 24. By virtue of their triumph, the Men in Blue qualified for the semifinals of the ICC event and will face defending champions England in Guyana on June 27.

Sent into bat by Australia, Team India put up an impressive total of 205-5 on the board in their 20 overs as skipper Rohit Sharma smashed a brilliant 92 off 41 balls, hitting seven fours and eight sixes. In the chase, Travis Head clobbered 76 off 43 balls, but India restricted the Aussies to 181-7 as Arshdeep Singh claimed 3-37 and Kuldeep Yadav 2-24.

While India and England will battle it out in the second semifinal, South Africa still await their opponents in the first semifinal of the 2024 T20 World Cup, which will be played at the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba, Trinidad on June 27 [6:00 AM].

Despite their defeat to India, Australia are still in contention for a place in the semifinals, as are Afghanistan and Bangladesh, who will meet in the last Super 8 match of the tournament at Arnos Vale Ground in Kingstown, St Vincent on Tuesday, June 25.

On that note, let's take a look at the semifinal qualification scenarios for Afghanistan, Australia and Bangladesh.


Afghanistan (2 points from 2 matches; NRR: -0.650)

Afghanistan went down to India by 47 runs in their first Super 8 match at the Kensington Oval, Bridgetown, Barbados. However, their historic 21-run win over the Aussies in their second Super 8 clash in Kingstown has kept them in contention for a place in the knockouts.

The equation for Afghanistan is pretty simple. They need to beat Bangladesh on Tuesday to qualify for the semifinals of the 2024 T20 World Cup. If they win the game against Bangladesh, they will move up to four points in Group 1, while Australia and Bangladesh will be stuck on two points each.

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In case Afghanistan go down to Bangladesh in their last Super 8 match, both Australia and Afghanistan will finish on two points each. But in this scenario, the Asian side will be knocked out of the tournament. Even if they lose in the Super Over, Afghanistan's net run rate can only improve to -0.433, which will still be below Australia's NRR.

In case the Afghanistan vs Bangladesh Super 8 match is washed out due to rain, both teams will get one point each. Afghanistan (3 points) will thus qualify for the semifinals ahead of Australia (2 points).


Australia (2 points from 3 matches; NRR: -0.331)

The Aussies were unbeaten in Group B, winning four matches on the trot. They also began their Group 1 campaign in the Super 8 round in impressive fashion, getting the Bangladesh by 28 runs [DLS method] in a rain-hit game in Antigua.

Things have gone downhill for them since as they have suffered consecutive defeats to Afghanistan and India in their last two Super 8 games. The Aussies, however, are still not out of the semifinals race. Having said that, they need a huge favor from Bangladesh to qualify for the knockouts of the 2024 T20 World Cup.

According to ESPNcricinfo, for Australia to qualify for the semis, Bangladesh need to beat Afghanistan by a margin of less than 62 runs if they bat first (assuming they score 140). In a chase of 141, Bangladesh need to get home in 12.4 overs or more for Australia to sneak into the knockouts.


Bangladesh (0 points from 2 matches; NRR: -2.489)

It is a rather ironic scenario. But the fact is that owing to Australia's Super 8 woes, Bangladesh are in a position from where they can either aide the Aussies and push them into the semifinals or knock them out of the tournament.

So far, Bangladesh have lost both their Super 8 matches. After going down to Australia by 28 runs [DLS method], they were hammered by the Men in Blue by 50 runs. Despite the two defeats, Bangladesh can still make the semifinals ahead of Australia and Afghanistan.

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For Bangladesh to book a place in the knockouts of the 2024 T20 World Cup, they need to beat Afghanistan in their last Super 8 match by 62 for more runs [if they score 140 batting first] to surpass Australia's net run rate of -0.331.

In a chase of 141, they need to get home in 12.3 overs or less than that. If they level scores and win the match with a six, a chase in 13.1 overs will also be enough to push them to second spot in Group 1 and confirm a berth for them in the first semifinal of the 2024 T20 World Cup.

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