2024 T20 World Cup Super 8 Group 1 qualification scenarios: How can India, Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh qualify for semifinals?
Afghanistan beat Australia by 21 runs in a Group 1 Super 8 match of the Men's 2024 T20 World Cup at the Arnos Vale Ground in Kingstown, St Vincent on Sunday, June 23. The Asian side came up with a memorable performance with both bat and ball to stun the Aussies.
Batting first after losing the toss, Afghanistan put up 148-6 on the board in their 20 overs as Rahmanullah Gurbaz hit 60 off 49 and Ibrahim Zadran 51 off 48. Australia fought back well to restrict Afghanistan under 150 as Pat Cummins claimed his second hat-trick in as many matches, while Adam Zampa chipped in with 2-28.
In the chase, Australia were bowled out for 127 in 19.2 overs as Afghanistan pulled off a win for the ages. Gulbadin Naib was the star with the ball, registering figures of 4-20, while Naveen-ul-Haq also did a good job, picking up 3-20. For the Aussies, Glenn Maxwell was the lone ranger with 59 off 41 balls.
Afghanistan's famous win over Australia means that all four teams in Group 1 are still in contention for a place in the 2024 T20 World Cup semifinals. On that note, let's take a close look at the semifinal qualification scenarios for India, Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
#1 India (4 points from 2 matches, NRR: +2.425)
With four points from two matches and a net run rate of +2.425, Team India are well-placed to reach the semifinals of the 2024 T20 World Cup. If they beat Australia in their last Super 8 match at the Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium in Gros Islet, St Lucia on Monday, June 24, they will be confirmed for a place in the semifinals. No other team in Group 1 can now reach six points.
Even if they go down to Australia, India can still qualify for the semis if their net run rate is better than at least one of Australia and Afghanistan [assuming all three teams finish on four points]. Even a no result against Australia will be enough for the Men in Blue to progress to the knockouts of the T20 World Cup.
The only way India can be eliminated is if both Australia and Afghanistan finish on four points and also surpass the Men in Blue on net run rate. As per a report in Cricbuzz, Australia must beat India by 41 or more runs to surpass their run rate, while Afghanistan will have to hammer Bangladesh by 83 runs to better India's net run rate.
#2 Australia (2 points from 2 matches, NRR: +0.223)
Despite the loss to Afghanistan on Sunday, Australia are still in second position in Group 1 of the Super 8 points table. They have two points to their name at a net run rate of +0.223.
For Australia to qualify for the semifinals of the 2024 T20 World Cup, they need to beat India and hope that Afghanistan lose to Bangladesh in their last Super 8 game. That way India and Australia will qualify with four points each, while Afghanistan will stay on two points.
In the event of Australia beating India and Afghanistan getting the better of Bangladesh, the Aussies will have to hope that Afghanistan do not overhaul their net run rate. That way Australia can reach the semis by remaining in second place.
The worst-case scenario for Australia is India defeating them and Afghanistan getting the better of Bangladesh. If that happens India will move to six points and Afghanistan to four. The Aussies will stay on two points and will be knocked out.
#3 Afghanistan (2 points from 2 matches, NRR: -0.650)
Courtesy of their win over Australia, Afghanistan are very much in the hunt for a place in the semis. They are currently in third position, with two points from two Super 8 games and a net run rate of -0.650.
The best case scenario for Afghanistan to qualify for the semifinals of the 2024 T20 World Cup is India beating Australia and them beating Bangladesh in their last Super 8 clash. In such a scenario, India will finish the Super 8 stage with six points and Afghanistan with four. Australia will stay on two points and won't qualify.
In the event of the Aussies getting the better of India, Afghanistan will not just have to beat Bangladesh, but also surpass Australia's net run rate to book a berth in the semifinals. If Australia beat India by 1 run, Afghanistan have to get the better of Bangladesh by 36 runs [assuming the team batting first scores 160 runs].
#4 Bangladesh (0 points from 2 matches, NRR: -2.489)
With zero points from two matches and a net run rate of -2.489, Bangladesh are all but out of the qualification race. They have only a slim mathematical chance of finishing in the top two in Group 1 of the Super 8 round.
Bangladesh will be in with a chance to qualify for the 2024 T20 World Cup semis if they hammer Afghanistan by a huge margin and hope that India also get the better of Australia by a big margin. In such a scenario, Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh will finish on two points each, bringing the net run rate into play.
If India beat Australia by 55 runs in their last Super 8 match, Bangladesh will have to beat Afghanistan by at least 31 runs [assuming the team batting first scores 160 runs] to finish in second place in the Group 1 points table, ahead of both Australia and Afghanistan. This seems a very unlikely proposition.