9 concerns for India ahead of their WTC final against New Zealand
It’s quite fitting that India and New Zealand, two sides sky-high on confidence, are playing the inaugural World Test Championship (WTC) final.
New Zealand’s 1-0 victory in England saw them displace India from the top spot in the ICC Test Rankings. India, on the other hand, beat the odds and won in Australia earlier this year and later routed England at home to enter the WTC final as the top-positioned side.
The old adage goes – “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.” Through a remarkable amalgam of grit, skill, mental strength and professionalism, India proved it in the 2020-21 season.
The side from Asia had already ended the previous decade with the best win-loss ratio across formats. They won the ODI World Cup and Champions Trophy, had good showings in the last two T20 World Cups and ruled the Test Rankings for a cumulative four-and-a-half years leading up to the WTC final.
The tour of Australia, which was vital for India's progress in the WTC, compounded the side's problems as numerous experienced players were ruled out due to injuries. Only Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane played in all four Tests, with the latter leading the side in the last three Tests.
Triumphing over the adversities, India impressed the cricket fraternity with a fantastic victory in a pandemic-struck world, opening the doors for a new era in Indian cricket and helping the team advance to the WTC final.
After almost two years of toil, India and New Zealand are deserving of their place in the WTC final at Southampton.
In New Zealand, India face an opponent who are better prepared and more suited to excel in English conditions. Despite India’s recent riches in international cricket, New Zealand is a hurdle they have often stumbled on. Historically, India haven’t done well against New Zealand in crucial clashes and haven't defeated them in an ICC event since 2003 but the WTC final will provide them with another chance to break that streak.
Though India have a strong squad with most aspects covered, there are some concerns they will have to address in order to win the WTC.
1. India aren't good series starters
Gone are times when teams would play numerous warm-up or first-class matches to get accustomed to the overseas conditions. The modern game, which involves bilateral series across formats and is home to a stacked international calendar, does not allow for multiple warm-up games.
India are one of the teams that have been impacted negatively by this in recent times. They tend to struggle in their initial games and taken some time to adjust. In a one-off Test such as the WTC final, no team has that luxury.
Since 2018, India have lost four opening Tests (Cape Town, Edgbaston, Wellington and Adelaide) out of the six they have played away from home. Even at Adelaide 2018, it was a herculean effort from Pujara that helped them remain in the Test.
The trend was even noticed recently when India returned after a two-month-long Australian tour earlier this year and lost their first Test at home against England in Chennai before winning the series to qualify for the WTC final. Meanwhile, England returning from Sri Lanka were better used to the conditions.
Meanwhile, the England series has given New Zealand ample time to get match practice and acclimatize. To India's advantage, they have spent more time at Southampton, the WTC final venue, and unlike New Zealand, they have the experience of playing two Tests (2014 and 2018) at the venue, though they lost both games.
2. The batting woes
Since 2020, India have struggled with their batting. They have won five and lost four Tests in this stretch, playing six away and four at home.
Batting and bowling averages for teams since January 2020 (Minimum 5 Tests)
During this timeframe, India's batting average is extremely low at 24.77. The figure drops to a worrying 24.23 when they play overseas. It's India's bowling that has won them games in the recent past, but in a match as big as the WTC final, India will have to bat out of their skins.
3. India's problems against the moving ball
India's batting woes are further compounded by pacers who can swing the ball. The moving cherry has been the Indian batters' Achilles' heel for a long time now.
In recent years, they have found more comfort against pace and bounce, but remain susceptible to swing bowlers. This has been the primary reason for India's struggles in England and New Zealand, and could come back to haunt them in the WTC final.
Even during the Adelaide Test last year, when the pink ball swung more, batting problems surfaced and they were infamously bowled out for a mere 36.
On the other hand, the New Zealand batters have played much of their cricket in swinging conditions back home and are better equipped to handle this aspect of the sport.
Indian batters in England and New Zealand (regions known for swinging conditions)
Since 2018, Ajinkya Rahane's numbers have been even more alarming as his average has dropped below 25. However, Cheteshwar Pujara and Virat Kohli have done well in recent tours. Kohli averaged almost 60 in his last England tour, while Pujara scored a brilliant unbeaten 132 in the first innings of the 2018 Southampton Test.
4. Virat Kohli's form
Virat Kohli is India's best batsman acroconditions and will therefore start as the team's most important player in the WTC final. However, the Indian skipper last scored an international hundred back in 2019.
Since the start of 2020, Kohli has averaged only 24 in the seven Tests he has played. The disappointing streak has also resulted in his fall in the ICC Test Rankings for Batsmen, where he has slipped to fifth spot from second.
In a side with plenty of batting worries, a lot depends on Kohli's form in the WTC final.
5. India's inexperience in the opening department
India have used five opening pairs in the WTC. Since the start of 2020, the partnership average for Indian openers has been a dismal 24.55.
The Sydney Test of 2021 saw Rohit Sharma open with Shubman Gill. Since then, the numbers have marginally improved. The duo have opened in six Tests and averaged 33.80. In all likelihood, Gill will be Rohit's opening partner in the WTC final.
Opening the batting is a specialized job, especially in conditions where the ball moves. The lack of experience will be a key factor as New Zealand have some of the best swing bowlers in the world in the likes of Trent Boult and Tim Southee.
Except for the two Tests in Australia, Rohit hasn't opened outside India. Gill has little experience in England as he didn't play for India A in first-class matches in England during the 2018 tour, with the team preferring Prithvi Shaw.
While Shaw isn't a part of the squad itself, the other opener from the A side, Mayank Agarwal, hasn't done too well in English conditions. The only opener in the squad who has the experience of opening in a Test in England is KL Rahul, who is unlikely to play.
There's no doubt that Rohit has tremendously improved against the new red ball, but he will have to get over a forgettable past record against the moving ball to get India off to a good start in the WTC final.
6. Playing both R Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja in the WTC Final
Simon Lee's tenure as a curator at Southampton began with the England-West Indies series last year. He is aiming for a surface that assists pace and bounce. He also stated that if the sun is out and the match moves to the fourth day, then spin will play a role in the WTC final.
If this is to be true, India will consider themselves in a good position as they have two of the finest spinners in international cricket - Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.
Undoubtedly, they are the most lethal spin-bowling pair in the sport's recent history. Their careers have coincided for almost nine years now, but they have only played four Tests together outside the subcontinent, two of which were in Australia last season.
Jadeja is currently the second-ranked Test all-rounder. Ranked by Wisden as the second-most impactful Test cricketer of the 21st century behind Muttiah Muralitharan, Jadeja's return from injury massively boosts India's chances of winning the WTC final. Meanwhile, Ashwin is India's premier spinner and the world's second-ranked Test bowler.
If India play both, they will have to keep a specialist batter out and expect Jadeja to play that role. And as it stands, he does seem a capable choice after slamming a fine fifty in the intra-squad WTC practice match.
Jadeja vs Ashwin since 2018
Under the supervision of curator Lee at Southampton, the surfaces have seen 58 wickets fall to pace at an average of 29.93. The spin department has just 12 scalps to its name at a dismal 48.41. With these numbers in mind, it remains to be seen if India will be brave enough to back their traditional strength and play both Ashwin and Jadeja in the WTC final.
New Zealand, on the other hand, are likely to end up playing an all-pace attack.
7. The Mohammed Siraj and Ishant Sharma dilemma
With Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Shami certain to start, the cricket fraternity seems divided over Mohammed Siraj and Ishant Sharma. Both the pacers had a good intra-squad practice match ahead of the WTC final.
Ishant is India's most experienced pacer and played his 100th Test earlier this year. He has an expectational record against the Kiwis and is among the best fast bowlers in the world. Meanwhile, Siraj's ability to move the ball in these conditions will be critical. He bowled with a lot of heart in Australia and emerged as one of the unlikely heroes on the tour and helped guide India to the summit of the WTC.
A difficult decision lies ahead for the Indian management in the build-up to the WTC final.
8. India's fielding issues
Over the past decade and a half, India has grown in reputation as a fielding side, which seemed a distant dream during the 1990s. But in recent years, their on-field efforts have been awful on multiple occasions. Even captain Kohli has struggled with seemingly regulation catches in the build-up to the WTC final.
In the 2020-21 Australian tour, India dropped over 30 catches across formats. Fielding coach R Sridhar has assured fans that those fielding errors won't be swept under the carpet because of the wins in the WTC and fans will hope there is an improvement this time around.
With the ball moving around, slip catching won't be easy in England and India will know even one drop might prove costly in the WTC final.
9. The Kiwi factor
India have a dismal record against New Zealand in the ICC tournaments. Since the 1975 World Cup, India have won three matches against New Zealand (two of them in the 1987 World Cup) while the Kiwis have ten victories. India's last win over New Zealand in an ICC tournament was during the Super Six match of the 2003 World Cup. The last time the two sides played each other in an ICC tournament final, New Zealand beat India to win the 2000 ICC Knockout Trophy, their lone ICC honour.
India vs New Zealand in ICC tournaments since the 2003 World Cup
- Lost second-round match at Johannesburg in 2007 T20 World Cup
- Lost group match at Nagpur in 2016 T20 World Cup
- Lost semi-final at Manchester in 2019 ODI World Cup
- Lost the first Test at Wellington in WTC match 2019-20 season
- Lost the second Test at Christchurch in WTC match 2019-20 season
New Zealand hold the psychological edge going into the WTC final, but India will hope to turn the tide on the biggest stage in Test cricket.