Asia Cup 2014: Qualification scenarios for India, Bangladesh and Afghanistan

Indian captain Virat Kohli (R) with teammates returns to the dressing room after losing the sixth match of the Asia Cup one-day cricket tournament between India and Pakistan at the Sher-e-Bangla National Cricket Stadium in Dhaka on March 2, 2014.

After the back-to-back losses against Sri Lanka and Pakistan at the Asia Cup 2014 in Bangladesh, India are left with no choice but to depend on the other results to go in their way to qualify for the finals. Although it is not something that is likely to happen, theoretically the Virat Kohli-led outfit still has a chance to make it to the finals. It is important to note that only Sri Lanka have sealed their spot; no other team is assured of a berth.

For India to qualify:

Matches remaining – 1
Points – 4
Net Run Rate – (-)0.027

Firstly, India needs to make sure that they defeat Afghanistan with a bonus point. Then, hope that Bangladesh beat both Pakistan and Sri Lanka, but with only one bonus point. It will lead to all of India, Bangladesh and Pakistan being tied at second place with 9 points each. Net run rate will decide who gets through to the finals in such a case.

Bangladesh winning only against Pakistan will not be enough to make the cut, as it will lead to a shootout between India and Pakistan; the Misbah-led team, based on their head-to-head superiority over India in the tournament, will have it their way.

Not just India, even the host nation Bangladesh and Afghanistan can make it to the grand finale.

For Bangladesh to qualify:

Matches remaining – 2
Points – 0
Net Run Rate – (-)0.384

Bangladesh, whose run-rate is battered by heavy defeats against India and Afghanistan, need to win both their remaining matches with bonus points. In such a scenario, it can help them get up to 10 points, which will directly send both India and Pakistan out.

If they win both the matches but get only one bonus point, they would have to hope that Afghanistan win against India but not with a bonus point to make their way through. In such a case, Bangladesh will be tied with Pakistan at second spot with 9 points each, and a better head-to-head record means Bangladesh make their way into the finals.

For Afghanistan to qualify:

Matches remaining – 1
Points – 4
Net Run Rate – (-)1.127

Afghanistan, on the other hand, need to get the full 5 points by beating India and hope that Bangladesh win both the matches but with just a single bonus point. In such a scenario, it will lead to Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan being tied at the second spot with 9 points each. The NRR will then decide who goes to the finals.