Australia, India, South Africa - Which two teams have a better chance of making it to the WTC final?
The race to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final is underway, with four teams still alive. Australia, India and South Africa are the top three contenders for the WTC final, while Sri Lanka have an outside chance of making it.
Looking at Sri Lanka's qualification scenario first, they will have to defeat Australia 2-0 in their home series and hope that Pakistan defeat South Africa 2-0. Plus, Sri Lanka will also have to hope that Australia do not win their ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy series against India. Thus, it looks highly unlikley that Sri Lanka will make the final.
Even if the islanders win their remaining matches, they will not have their fate in their own hands. On the other hand, India, Australia and South Africa have their destiny squarely in their hands. Here's an analysis of which two teams have a better chance of making it to the WTC final.
How can Team India qualify for WTC final 2025?
India have to win the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy series by a 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 margin to earn direct entry into the World Test Championship final. The current scoreline of their series Down Under stands at 1-1, with three Tests to go.
The Gabba Test seems to be headed for a draw because of constant rain interruptions. In that case, India will have to win one and draw one Test in Melbourne and Sydney to earn direct entry. If India win 3-2, they will have to hope that one of the two Tests between Sri Lanka and Australia ends in a draw.
If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series ends in a draw, India will have to hope for Sri Lanka to defeat Australia 1-0 in their upcoming series. A defeat in the BGT series would knock India out of the race.
Looking at the way India performed in Perth and their last two tours of Australia, the Rohit Sharma-led outfit will believe that they can win the ongoing Test series against the Aussies.
How can Australia qualify for WTC final 2025?
A 3-2 series win over India would be enough for Australia to secure direct entry into the final. In case of a series loss against India, Australia will have to try to ensure that the scoreline is not worse than 2-3.
If Australia lose 2-3, they can still make it to the final by defeating Sri Lanka 2-0 in the away series. Defeating the islanders in subcontinental conditions will be a tough job for the reigning World Test Championship winners, which is why the Aussies should aim to stop India from winning their third consecutive Test series on Australian soil.
How can South Africa qualify for WTC final 2025?
South Africa have the simplest equation. They will make it to the World Test Championship final if they win one of their remaining two matches against Pakistan. Considering that South Africa will host the series and Pakistan have been poor in Tests of late, the Proteas are overwhelming favorites to make the final.
Looking at the scenarios of all three teams, South Africa have the easiest route to the final. Despite the difficulties India have faced in Brisbane in the ongoing Test, they will fancy their chances in the more familiar conditions of Melbourne and Sydney. The WTC final 2025 could well be a repeat of the T20 World Cup 2024 final between India and South Africa, which the Indians won in thrilling fashion.