Australia vs New Zealand Prediction: Who will win today's T20 World Cup 2021 final?
"After a lifetime of dreaming about exactly that moment, I messed it up. So I laughed - otherwise I'd still be crying," former New Zealand captain Brendon McCullum once said, in a candid take on the 2015 World Cup final against Australia.
McCullum had his stumps disturbed by a vicious inswinger from Mitchell Starc in the first over as his world-beating Blackcaps fell to a comprehensive defeat at the hands of the undisputed behemoths of the World Cup. However, the former New Zealand skipper, widely regarded as one of the best captains the game has ever seen, revolutionized his side to such an extent that they continue to reap the benefits of his leadership even today.
Since the 2015 World Cup final, New Zealand have reached the final of the 2019 World Cup, the final of the 2019-21 World Test Championship and the final of the 2021 T20 World Cup. The last game on this illustrious list, the first T20 World Cup final in five years, will be played on November 14 at the Dubai International Stadium.
McCullum might be retired, but his spirit lives on in this New Zealand team. Under the astute leadership of Kane Williamson, the Kiwis have defied the lack of T20 superstars in their side to fight their way to the final. But they are up against an Australian team that is gradually finding the ruthlessness that made them one of the greatest outfits of the previous generation.
Can New Zealand seize their moment, something which McCullum couldn't do back in 2015 and something which the Kiwis did earlier this year in the World Test Championship? Can Australia finally clinch the ICC trophy that has eluded them six times already?
T20 World Cup 2021: New Zealand seek to evade the odds against stacked Australia
New Zealand and Australia have faced off in four ICC knockout games, and the stats don't paint a pretty picture for the former. The Kangaroos have won each of the four games, with the latest being the aforementioned 2015 World Cup final. However, cricketing logic must be thrown out of the window in the T20 World Cup final, as it has been throughout the tournament so far.
Few would've imagined that the toss would play as big of a role as it has in the T20 World Cup. Few would've imagined that Devon Conway, the mild-mannered run-accumulator in a mild-mannered Kiwi side, would break his hand after smashing his bat in anger in the semi-final. Few would've imagined that Australia and New Zealand, both of whom lost to Group 1 wooden-spoon holders Bangladesh, would be in the summit clash.
Yet, here we are. The spectacle of ICC knockout cricket has produced not one but two unexpected finalists, and while it isn't a stretch to claim that there have been "better" teams in the T20 World Cup, it is impossible to dispute that both Australia and New Zealand deserve to be here. Coming into the tournament as unfancied teams, they have exceeded expectations while improving their performances throughout.
Australia needed Marcus Stoinis and Matthew Wade to get over the line against Pakistan. They had to dig deep, but passed their depth test with flying colors. Even those who haven't stepped up often enough for Australia, like Glenn Maxwell and Pat Cummins, have come up with vital contributions at crucial junctures.
Aaron Finch's last few ICC knockout games have ended in disappointing ducks, and things won't get any easier for the Australian captain against Trent Boult and Tim Southee. While Boult has blown hot and cold in the T20 World Cup thus far, Southee has been exceptional with a sub-six economy rate and at least one wicket in each game.
Meanwhile, New Zealand have relied heavily on contributions from Martin Guptill and Daryl Mitchell, with most of the middle order yet to come up with a truly eye-catching knock. But the Blackcaps have found a way to win even when the odds have been stacked against them, with the likes of Jimmy Neesham and Ish Sodhi having been dependable in the T20 World Cup.
New Zealand's bowling doesn't have names like Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins which stand out, but few bowling outfits are more well-oiled and well-rounded. Up against a deep batting lineup with in-form batters like David Warner and Mitchell Marsh, Southee and Co. have no room for error.
The toss shouldn't play this big a role in any cricket game, but the ugly truth is that the chasing team has an unparalleled advantage in the UAE. Finch has been the luckier captain, having won three more tosses than Kane Williamson - make of that what you will.
Both teams are on the back of major morale-boosting run-chases. Both teams have lost only one game in the T20 World Cup thus far. Both teams have world-class left-arm pacers, two quality right-arm pacers, wicket-taking leg-spinners, explosive openers, all-rounders of every variety and excellent fielders.
But Australia are slowly morping into the team we all know they can be. New Zealand are a world-class T20 outfit, but can they continue to whip match-winners out of their hat? Do the Kiwis have the killer instinct that helps you win the ICC final?
The World Test Championship was one example, but five-day cricket is a completely different ball game where you're allowed to occasionally take your foot off the gas and still cross the finish line first. Surely their spiritedness has to come to an end at some point, while Australia's only seems to be beginning.
It's impossible to pick a winner in most knockout games, and this one is no different. While New Zealand could still go on to lift another piece of ICC silverware, a very slight advantage rests with Australia.
Prediction: Australia to win the T20 World Cup 2021 final