How can Pakistan still qualify for World Test Championship final despite the loss against England?
Having suffered a 74-run defeat in the first game of their World Test Championship (WTC) series against England, Pakistan currently trail 0-1 in the three-match series.
This series is very important for Pakistan, considering that they are still alive in the race to the World Test Championship final. After their defeat in the first Test, Pakistan hold the fifth spot in the WTC standings with 46.67% points to their name.
Pakistan still have four matches remaining in this cycle. The best thing for them is that they are all home games, which will take place over the course of the next few weeks. England will play two more Tests in the ongoing series, and then New Zealand will travel to Pakistan for a two-Test series.
Before diving deep into the calculations, here's a look at the current ICC World Test Championship points table as on December 7, 2022:
World Test Championship #WTC Points Table
England register 7th win in their last 8 matches.
Pakistan's road to final becomes more tricky now, they need to win all 4 of their remaining matches to make a case for final.
#ENGvPAK https://t.co/bby5CDzMyi
(Please Note: In WTC, A win = 12 Points, a loss = 0 points and a draw = 4 points.)
Pakistan's World Test Championship final scenario
The first thing that Pakistan need to do is win their remaining four matches. If they record two wins against England and two over New Zealand, Babar Azam's men will finish with 61.90% points (104 out of 168 points).
At the moment, only Australia (72.73) have a percentage of points higher than 61.9, but there are plenty of games remaining in this cycle. The three series that will determine Pakistan's fate are India vs. Bangladesh, Australia vs. India and Australia vs. South Africa.
India, Australia and South Africa are the only three teams that can finish with more than 61.9% points. So, assuming Pakistan win their remaining four games, they will hope that only one team out of India, Australia and South Africa end their campaign with more than 61.9% points.
How can India finish with less than 61.9% points in World Test Championship?
India are fourth right now in the World Test Championship points table with 52.08% points. They have six games remaining - two against Bangladesh and four against Australia.
Assuming India win 2-0 against Bangladesh and 4-0 against Australia, they will finish with 68.05% points. For India to finish below Pakistan's 61.9% points, they will have to end up with 131 points out of their available 216 points, which equals to 61%.
India already have 75 points, so they will have to earn less than 57 points, meaning Pakistan will have to hope that India do not win more than four of their remaining six matches.
How can Australia finish with less than 61.9% points in World Test Championship?
Australia are currently at the top of the points table with 72.73% points. For the Australians to end up with less than 61.9% points, they will have to lose five of their remaining eight matches.
The table-toppers are scheduled to play one Test against West Indies, three against South Africa and four against India. If they beat the West Indies, win 2-1 against South Africa, and lose 0-4 against India, their tally will be 57.89%.
How can South Africa finish with less than 61.9% points in World Test Championship?
South Africa are right now second with 60% points. They have five matches remaining - three against Australia and two against West Indies.
If the Proteas lose against Australia 1-2 and beat the West Indies 2-0, they will end up with 60% points, which will be less than Pakistan's maximum points percentage of 61.9%.
The other results seem possible, but first and foremost, Pakistan will have to beat England 2-1 and New Zealand 2-0 to keep themselves alive in the tournament.