ICC World T20: Round 1 qualification scenarios

Bangladesh are favorites to progress to the next stage

The first leg of the ICC World T20 has almost reached its end with each team having only one match to play. None of the teams, though, are confirmed of a spot among the elite at this year’s major cricket extravaganza yet. With only one team being allowed to progress from each group to the Super 10 stage, there are still some permutations and combinations that could decide which two countries complete the 10 at the biennial event.

Group A:

Bangladesh, having registered comfortable wins in both their matches, are the favorites to progress to the Super 10. The teams that can challenge the home side are Afghanistan and Nepal. For these teams to qualify, they would firstly have to emerge victors in the match between them. Then they would have to hope that Hong Kong can muster up the strength to cause an upset of massive proportions against the hosts.

Even if that happens, Afghanistan or Nepal will have to ensure that they have a run-rate greater than Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s run-rate at the moment is +2.68 as compared to +1.21 for Nepal and -1.27 for Afghanistan, so it can be safely concluded that Bangladesh would be the team who would challenge India, Pakistan, Australia and West Indies in the Super 10.

Group B:

Group B has a much more competitive look as compared to Group A. This is what the teams need to do to qualify for the next round:

United Arab Emirates: With two losses in as many matches, the UAE cannot make it to the next stage.

Zimbabwe: After failing to win a close match against Ireland, Zimbabwe got past the Dutch off the last ball. They will now have to beat the UAE and then hope that Netherlands win against Ireland. In addition to that, they would have to win by a margin such that they have the highest net run-rate amongst the three teams.

Netherlands: After a convincing win against the UAE, the Dutch faltered in the closing stages to lose to Zimbabwe. For them to qualify, they will have to defeat the Irish in the last match. They also have to ensure that their run-rate is greater than the other teams. If Zimbabwe beat the UAE and Netherlands win in their fixture, there would be a three-way tie, and the net run-rate would be used to decide who would progress.

Ireland: For Ireland the equation is simple: win the match against Netherlands and progress to the Super 10 round. Even if they fail to do so, they could progress on the basis of a higher net run-rate.

As of now, the net run-rates of the teams stand as following:

Zimbabwe: +0.125
Netherlands: +0.094
Ireland: +0.641

The Irish and the Dutch teams would have an advantage, as they would be playing the last match of the group and would know exactly what they require to progress.

The winner of Group B would join Sri Lanka, New Zealand, South Africa and England.