IND vs ENG 2021: India need to strike a balance between their strongest possible bowling unit and a strongest possible XI
Right at the outset, it is worth noting that this is not an analysis based on India's crushing defeat at Headingley last week. Both the Lord’s, as well as Headingley Tests, were aberrations. From an Indian perspective, everything that could go wrong went wrong at Headingley and a seemingly once in a decade comeback took place at Lord’s.
It would be a fool’s errand to voice out for changes or opinions based solely on such performances. However, certain issues have lingered on for a long period. The struggles of the middle-order and the lower-order.
The trio of Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli and rahane' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer'>rahane" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ajinkya Rahane have struggled for runs for at least two years now. Rishabh Pant has joined those unwanted ranks during this series. However, Pujara produced an excellent innings at Headingley that might secure his place in the side for the near future.
When it comes to Kohli and Rahane, with the kind of stature that they possess, you would find it hard to contemplate a change in personnel, at least during the span of the ongoing series. And it is unfair to question Rishabh Pant based on a below-par series with the bat after several stunning performances earlier in the year.
Hence, let us focus our attention on the one area that has posed a stark difference in quality and quantity compared to the opponents – India’s lower order. Now, we can’t expect the bowlers to rescue the teams every time or to bat as well as the top-order does. But in the current day and age, the contribution at the lower end of the order can also define which way the match sways. And that has been the difference between a win and a loss for India quite often.
India have four top bowlers forming a fragile lower-order
Virat Kohli has been vocal about his comfort in going in with four seamers and a spinner in SENA countries. He has always been a fast bowler’s captain and his attitude has played a vital role in the rise of the fast bowling contingent in the past decade. It was the sort of culmination of all the work done in the past when India fielded arguably their strongest pace bowling line-up ever in history for the second and third Tests against England.
What India and Virat Kohli have struggled to balance is the kind of strength the four-prong pace attack provides to the bowling machinery and its inversely proportional contribution to the lower order. The unit consisting of Mohammed Shami, Ishant Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj would all be contenders for the numbers 10 and 11 in the batting order of any decent side. They ended up batting at least two places higher than the optimum.
The gamble paid off at Lord’s with the historic partnership between Mohammed Shami and Jasprit Bumrah. But, as mentioned earlier, the partnership was an aberration. The fact that it received so much attention and adulation is enough to tell you that the partnership was totally unexpected and no one expects it to happen again in the near future.
If you look at the batting averages, Mohammed Shami has the highest among the four at 11.80. The averages of Ishant Sharma and Mohammed Siraj hover just over eight, while Jasprit Bumrah has scored at a shade under five runs per innings. Those are not figures that a side would bank upon.
The struggles of the Indian lower-order
The struggle at the lower order has been a bane for India for quite some time now. The combined average of India's bottom four batsmen (12.67) ranks eighth among the 11 Test playing nations since 2020. Only Sri Lanka (12.51), South Africa (10.85) and Afghanistan (8.33) have an average worse than that of India.
When it comes to batting in the SENA countries, it gets worse. Only Sri Lanka (8.66) have a worse batting average compared to the lower-order of India (10.74). If you compare it with the average of New Zealand (23.92) at the top, the difference is quite striking.
The more damning figure is the stark contrast between the averages of batters 8-11 when India win compared with the matches when they lose. In the 12 matches that India have won since the beginning of 2020, the lower-order has a combined average of 21.50. This drops to 7.38 in matches that India have lost. In essence, the lower order has contributed over 50 runs more every innings in matches India have won in the last year and a half.
Yes, you have to credit players like Ishant Sharma and Bumrah for putting the hard yards in the net in a bid to improve their batting, but it is still far off from being where it needs to be. If you go in with four bowlers possessing not even half-decent ability with the bat, you can’t expect much resistance once your top-order fails. Any modern-day team must strike a balance between choosing the strongest possible bowling unit and the strongest possible side.
India need to bring back either Ravichandran Ashwin or Shardul Thakur
To put it bluntly, India need a quality bowler with a reasonable ability with the bat at number 8. They don’t face this problem when they play in the sub-continent as India have the trio of Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel to choose from. All are destructive bowlers on sub-continent tracks and are more than capable batters. But the scenario changes with the change in the continent.
The real toss-up in the current squad will be between Ashwin and Shardul Thakur for that place. Ishant Sharma struggled in the third Test and he may just miss out purely based on the current form. Ashwin and Thakur are both capable batters as well.
One could argue then that the conditions in England may favor Thakur, but a world-class bowler like Ashwin could be a threat on any surface. Similar to what legendary captains like Mansur Ali Khan Pataudi and Clive Lloyd have shown us in the past, fielding your best bowlers irrespective of the surface on offer could be the best way forward.
At the time of writing, Ravindra Jadeja is also under an injury cloud. In case he doesn’t make it to the side for the fourth Test at the Oval, it will be a no-brainer to play both Ashwin and Thakur in the side. Knowing Virat Kohli and his comfort in playing five bowlers in the side, it is highly unlikely that an extra batter will get a look in.
All said and done, runs are never a guarantee at any position. But India need to have at least a semblance of that insurance in the lower order. Having four bowlers with questionable ability with the bat makes a collapse almost always a certainty.