India's World Test Championship final qualification scenario (Updated) after Pakistan's win against Sri Lanka
India's journey to the World Test Championship (WTC) final has become trickier after Pakistan's four-wicket win against Sri Lanka in Galle on Wednesday. After the match ended, Sri Lanka dropped from third to sixth position, whereas Pakistan moved up to the third spot.
India and West Indies rose to fourth and fifth positions from fifth and sixth, respectively, due to Sri Lanka's defeat.
Pakistan's current points percentage is 58.33 with six matches to go, while India's points percentage is 52.08 with six matches remaining.
South Africa and Australia continue to be the top two teams in the ICC World Test Championship points table.
Pakistan rise to third in the World Test Championship standings after a brilliant win 📈
#SLvPAK | #BackTheBoysInGreen | #WTC23 https://t.co/Hct3U5dDRV
Speaking of India's qualification scenario for the World Test Championship final, the first thing they need to do is win their remaining six Test matches. Two of them are against Bangladesh away from home, while the other four are at home against Australia.
If India record six wins without any slow over-rate issues, they will gain 72 points. Their current tally is 75 out of 144 points. With six more wins, their points percentage will increase from 52.08 percent to 68.05 percent (147 out of 216 points).
Points for each match in WTC 2021-23 (ESPNcricinfo) :-
Win = 12 points
Draw = 4 points
Tie = 6 points
The WTC Cycle 2021-23 is set to start with India - England 5 match Test series in August, with the WTC Final being played in June 2023.
Fans should note that South Africa, Pakistan, and Australia are the only three teams that can stop India from qualifying for the WTC final even if they win their six matches.
Assuming India register six wins, at least two of the other three teams should finish with less than 68.05 percentage points.
Here's a breakdown of how South Africa, Australia and Pakistan should perform in their remaining matches to finish with 68 or less percentage points in WTC:
Australia will finish below India if they lose 0-4 in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy
How Australia can finish with 68% points https://t.co/cKWcyZDJsD
Australia's remaining matches in this WTC cycle: Two vs West Indies (home), three vs South Africa (home), and four vs India (away).
Australia's chances of making it to the WTC final were dented after their innings defeat against Sri Lanka earlier this month. Australia dropped to the second position with their points percentage coming down to 70.
The Pat Cummins-led outfit will need to win at least six of their remaining games to finish with more than 68 percentage points. If India beat Bangladesh 2-0 and defeat Australia 4-0, the Aussies will remain below India in the standings irrespective of their results against West Indies and South Africa.
Pakistan need to win a maximum of 4 of their remaining 6 matches
How Pakistan can finish with 68% points https://t.co/rgG5vuZ21s
Pakistan's remaining matches in this WTC cycle: Three vs England (home), two vs New Zealand (home), and one vs Sri Lanka (away).
Pakistan's chances of qualifying for the World Test Championship final have increased after their four-wicket win against Sri Lanka. They have six more matches remaining in the first round and, for India to finish above them, Pakistan need to win a maximum of four Tests.
If Pakistan lose one and draw one of their remaining six Tests, their points percentage will be less than 68.05 percent.
If South Africa lose at least 3 of their remaining matches, they will finish with less than 68.05% points
How can South Africa finish with 68% points? https://t.co/RMosFnY8TR
South Africa's remaining matches in this WTC cycle: Three vs England (away), two vs West Indies (home), and three vs Australia (away).
South Africa are at the top of the standings right now with 71.43 percentage points. The Proteas have three more series left in this WTC cycle. For the Proteas to finish with less than 68.05 percentage points, they need to lose at least three of their remaining eight matches.
If Australia whitewash South Africa 3-0 at home but lose to India 0-4, the Indian team will be all but through to the 2023 World Test Championship final if they beat Bangladesh 2-0.