India's World Test Championship final qualification scenarios (updated) after innings win vs Australia
India inched a step closer to the 2023 ICC World Test Championship final after the win against Australia at the VCA Stadium earlier today (February 11). Fantastic performances from Rohit Sharma, Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin and Axar Patel guided the home side to an innings victory in Nagpur.
Courtesy of the win against Australia, India now have 61.67% points to their name in the World Test Championship points table. They are only behind Australia, whose points percentage slumped to 70.83% after the loss in the first Test against India.
The top two teams in the final standings will qualify for the ICC World Test Championship final. India are the favorites to make it to the next round, and here are the updated qualification scenarios after the win against Australia.
Scenario 1: India will qualify for World Test Championship final if they win 2 more matches
Allan Border was clearly disappointed 👀
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India are just two wins away from qualifying for the World Test Championship final. There are three matches remaining in the 2023 Border-Gavaskar Trophy series. Delhi will host the next match from February 17, while Dharamsala and Ahmedabad are scheduled to host the third and fourth Tests in March.
If India manage to win two of the three Tests, they will qualify for the WTC final irrespective of what happens in the other series. A 3-0 win for India would take them to the number one position in the standings with 64.35% points. If the series ends with a 3-0 scoreline in India's favor, it will confirm an India vs. Australia final in England.
A 3-1 scoreline will also guarantee a final match between India and Australia. However, if India 4-0 win, Australia could miss out on the final. Australia's points percentage will slump to 59.65% in case they lose by 0-4. Sri Lanka can overtake them in the points table with a 2-0 series win against New Zealand.
Scenario 2: India win the series of 2-1, 2-0 or 1-0
WTC points table after the 1st Test between India and Australia 🔥
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Australia are among the strongest teams in the world, which is why one should not rule out the chance of a comeback despite the big defeat in Nagpur. If Australia do not allow India to win any more matches in this series, the Aussies will qualify.
India's points percentage will come down to 56.94% if they win by 1-0. Sri Lanka could overtake them with a 2-0 win. If India win by 2-0 or 2-1, they will still have to hope that New Zealand do not lose their home series against Sri Lanka 0-2.
Scenario 3: A draw or Australia secure a series win
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A series win for Australia is highly unlikely but if the Aussies script an incredible comeback, they will almost knock India out of the race to the World Test Championship final. Even a 2-1 win for Australia will keep both South Africa and Sri Lanka alive.
South Africa could finish above India if they beat West Indies 2-0 and Australia beat India by 2-1. The Proteas' points percentage will be 55.56%, slightly better than India's 53.24%. Even Sri Lanka could qualify for the final with a 1-0 win against New Zealand.
A 3-1 win for Australia will make matters worse for India. In case Australia pull off a 1-1 draw, India will have 55.09% points, meaning both South Africa and Sri Lanka will then have a chance. A 2-2 series result would make India reliant on New Zealand to win or draw at least one of the two matches against Sri Lanka.