India vs England: 5 individual/team predictions for the tour
India play England in a five match Test series. Both teams are woefully out of form and would like to change their fortunes in this series. Many careers are on stake. Let’s take a look at some of the things which could transpire in this Test series. This is pure prediction, based on the recent form, statistics and the law of averages.
MS Dhoni to return to form big time:
When we talk about Test cricket, Mahendra Singh Dhoni has certainly not been able to live up to the benchmark and the expectations that he has set in the shorter versions of the game. He has had a horrific run in Test matches. His form as a batsman has dented India’s fortunes in the longest and the purest form of the game, especially overseas. Even as a skipper his on field, decisions have been too defensive which has been detrimental to Indian cricket.
England, Australia, New Zealand or South Africa, Indian cricket has faltered into depths, much to the disappointment of the fans and the players. If the Indian team falters in the upcoming tour then the selectors would have no option but to start looking for a replacement in the longest format.
Last time India toured England, Dhoni amassed only 220 runs in 8 innings in the Test series averaging around 31. To add to his woes were some of his erratic decisions as a skipper. If Dhoni has to find form, he needs to bat at number 6 and play aggressively.
In the press conference just before the teams departure, Dhoni has clearly stated that he would try and play his natural game rather play as a proper batsman. And that is quite right too; players of his genre come out best when they play attacking cricket. Adam Gilchrist and Virender Sehwag are prime examples. It would be wrong to say that Dhoni has not done well overseas. It’s only about Test cricket where he has not been upto the mark.
During India’s tour of England in the year 2011 Dhoni was awarded the Player of the series for the ODI leg of the tour. India lost the tournament but Dhoni emerged as the highest run-getter, scoring 236 runs in 5 matches. He was the MVP of the ODI series. This clearly states and supports the fact that Dhoni needs to be a bit more aggressive in Test matches.
Dhoni is known to be somebody who tackles the pressure cooker situations pretty well. With the kind of mood he is in and if he is able to practice what he preached during the press conference, we will surely see Dhoni 2.0 taking the field in the upcoming Test series. This might be the platform where Dhoni returns to form and takes on the English bowlers.
Indian bowlers would step up:
It has been rightly said that you cannot win Test matches if you don’t have a bowlers who will get you 20 wickets in a span of 5 days. India has had a poor run when it comes to bowling in all versions of the game.
Indian bowlers should take a cue from the Sri Lankans as they dethroned the England batting line-up recently. Dhammika Prasad was an unknown face, still he was able to run through the Engalnd line up in the last Test match. The key was to pitch it up and bowl in the right areas. The Sri Lankans had a disciplined attack and that is the reason why they flourished in England.
The perfect combination would be three fast bowlers, and 1 spinner. The Indian think tank would have to choose from Mohammed Shami, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ishant Sharma and Varun Aaron. Mohammed Shami has been impressive in the Test matches that he has played so far. He has had 27 scalps in his 6 Test matches at a decent economy of 3.5. He can consistently bowl around 140 Kmph and that would be an added advantage in the English conditions.
Bhuvneshwar can swing the ball really well and the English conditions would suit his style. He has the habit of getting breakthroughs rightaway and he would prove to very effective with the new ball. His swing can do wonders for Team India.
In the abscence of Zaheer Khan, Ishant Sharma would have to shoulder the responsibility of leading the Indian bowling attack. Of course, he hasn’t been a consistent performer, and it remains to be seen whether he’s moved on from the nightmares of 2013. At times he has been off colour and has not been able to get breakthroughs for India at crucial junctures. But his experience would be a add on for him and he should be effective at Lord’s and Trent Bridge.
Aaron is someone who can hit the deck really hard and his sharp bouncers are an added advantage. Things might backfire but the Indian think tank has to show some confidence in this young Jharkhand lad. If Dhammika Prasad can do it, even Varun can. Probably Varun would have to wait for his chance as he has been out of the Test side for too long. But he can certainly get a look in as the series progresses.
If there’s any turn in latter stages, Ashwin or Jadeja should capitalise on that to run through the English side. With the calls being made for the inclusion of both overseas from some ex-cricketers, it’ll be interesting to see what bowling combination Dhoni picks.
Stuart Binny has shown what he is capable of and his recent form presents a strong case for his selection in the playing XI. Stuart Binny has bailed out his Ranji side Karnataka from tricky situations both with his bowling and batting on numerous occasions. And history reflects that the playing two Indian spinners would be a crime on green English pitches. When we look at the bowling average of the Indian spinners in the past twenty years or so in England, things look pretty sad, all of them have averaged more than 40.
English pitches always have some seam and swing and Binny would relish bowling on those strips. When we look at the past Ranji seasons, Binny has had a good average, a controlled economy and the most important point is that he has been amongst the wickets. With the bat too, Binny has been piling up runs regularly.
Overall, the Indian bowling looks settled and this might be the series where the Indian bowlers rise to the occasion.
Players to watch out for:
Sam Robson: An Australian born English cricketer, Robson was too good in the recently concluded Test series against Sri Lanka. In his short run in Test cricket Robson averages around 62 and has shown some grit that he certainly belongs to the international scene. Sam Robson has been in prime form and has been one of the topmost run-getter in the 2013 county championship. He is certainly a player to watch out for.
Gary Ballance: Another foreign import, Gary Ballance who was born and brought up in Zimbabwe made his debut in the final Test match against Australia in the Ashes. He has averaged around 57 smashing a century and a fifty against the Lankans. Gary looks technically sound and his rise as an international batsman is something which the Indians would certainly not want to ignore.
Moeen Ali: A left handed batsman and a right arm off-break bowler, Moeen Ali has shown great temperament. When the English line up had fallen apart, Ali stepped up and scored a century under pressure. He did it against a hostile Sri Lankan side. If we go by the law of averages, then he is the best bet to have in a team.
Cheteshwar Pujara: Oh boy, this guy loves being in the whites. He has been a run machine and has showed great temperament. Being hailed as the next Dravid, Pujara has been rock solid so far and has been able to hold the Indian team upright with his batting. With his hunger to stay on the crease, Pujara might well go on and notch up a few centuries or maybe double centuries in England.
Virat Kohli: There are players who just fizzle out after scoring a fifty or a century. Kohli is different, he hates getting out. His performance in New Zealand and South Africa was commendable. He averaged around 71 in New Zealand and around 68 in South Africa. Stated as the heir to batting throne of Sachin Tendulkar in Indian cricket, Kohli would be too keen to impress with the bat. If I had to put my money on one batsman it has to Virat Kohli. He might go on and become the highest grosser in the upcoming tour.
Varun Aaron: Most of us would be surprised seeing this name in this column. Varun was amongst the wickets in the IPL but at the same time he went for plenty in the last few matches. At times he is erratic but these are early days for the speedster. He has been out of the Test side for long and might not get a look in starightaway. But he will surely get his chance as the series progresses. We need to have a bowler who can hit the deck really hard. If he doesn’t experiment too much Varun Aaron would prove to be very lethal.
Alastair Cook: The poor run would continue
Alastair Cook has been in terrible form. Once touted as the player who would easily surpass Sachin Tendulkar when it comes to the number of centuries, Cook has fallen apart in a big way. Things have become so worse that the legendary Geoff Boycott has termed his recent form as a “recipe for resignation”. He has averaged around 25 in his last 24 innings. His form as a batsman has taken his captaincy to a low.
His field settings were terrible during the Test series against Sri lanka and this proves that Cook is very much low on confidence. His downfall had begun well back in 2012 where he averaged just 48. On paper the number looks decent but surely does not justify Alastair Cook’s calibre. In 2013 and 2014 Cook has been terribly out of form averaging 34 and 19 respectively.
India has to exploit this big chink in Alastair Cook’s armour. They should not let him settle down and attack him right from the word go. With the kind of pressure Cook is in another high voltage series would add to his long list of woes.
Do or die for Murali Vijay:
Gautam Gambhir is back in the side and this means that this is Murali Vijay’s last chance to shine with the bat. He did notch up a couple of hundreds during the home series against Australia. But he continues to be consistently inconsistent. Leaving out the home series against Australia, Vijay has had a horrific run. In New Zealand Vijay scored just 48 runs in his 4 innings. In South Africa too Vijay could bag only 176 runs in his kitty at an average of 29. He would be under pressure to perform. This one is a long series and of course he would be the first choice ahead of Gambhir. But if he fails, then it could prove to be destructive for his career. At most he would get 2 Test matches and if he doesn’t score big then Gambhir would get a chance to replace him. Gambhir is in form and if he is able to cash in on the opportunity then it would clearly mean the end of the road for Vijay.
If we look at both the teams, India looks far more settled. England has lacked the spark in the middle order following the departure of Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pieterson. Their bowling too looks a bit off colour. The series could be the beginning of a new era for Indian cricket. India 2, England 1 – that is how I see it.