India vs New Zealand - who has a better chance to qualify for the Women's T20 World Cup semi-final?
The ongoing ICC Women's T20 World Cup has thrown up a lot of surprises our way, with the biggest of them being a then-winless New Zealand thumping India in the teams' tournament opener on October 4.
India have gone on to win two of their next matches against Pakistan and Sri Lanka, respectively, by considerably big margins while the Kiwis suffered a 60-run loss to their neighbors Australia in their next game.
Both India and New Zealand are in contention for a semifinal spot in the tournament but only one will be able to qualify if the current scenario remains the same and Australia stay at the top of the group.
The Aussies have four points to their name while India are second with the same number of points, albeit from three matches. New Zealand are fourth with two points.
New Zealand have a couple more matches to play - against Sri Lanka on Saturday, October 12, and Pakistan on Monday, October 14. India, meanwhile, have just one group-stage game remaining - against Australia on Sunday, October 13.
India will have to beat Australia - preferably by a big margin - if they are to harbor any hopes of qualifying for the semifinals while the same goes for New Zealand against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
If Australia beat India on Sunday, the latter's run will be all but over in this tournament, with them clinging onto the hope that the White Ferns get beaten by both Sri Lanka and Pakistan, which looks extremely unlikely.
Both teams have an equal chance of qualifying for the semifinals
If India win against Australia, they will give themselves a massive headstart for qualification into the semis. However, if they lose, their race will be as good as over unless New Zealand lose both of their remaining matches.
Another scenario in which India can qualify in case they lose to Australia is if the Kiwis lose their next two matches. This will mean India remain with four points and New Zealand with two.
However, Pakistan, who have two points to their name, will end up gaining another two and pose a threat to the Women in Blue. Fatima Sana's girls have a couple of games to play, and could still be in contention.
Sri Lanka, who have been eliminated from the competition, pose no threat to India despite winning the Women's Asia Cup earlier this year.
If New Zealand win both their upcoming games, net run rate (NRR) will come into the picture, and by having beaten India in the past with a big margin, they might jdge their opponents out for a semifinal berth.
However, at the moment, India's NRR is 0.56 compared to New Zealand's dismal -0.05. This will not worry both teams too much as it can change quickly.
If we were to take the best-case scenarios for both teams, India would do well to beat Australia by a decent margin to qualify for the semis. New Zealand will have to do the same against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.