Match prediction, T20 WC 2016 semifinal: India can't afford to take West Indies lightly

India faces West Indies today at 7 PM for the T20 World Cup Semi Final Clash. While the pitch at the Wankhede has been batsman-friendly so far, there's no guarantee that it will remain that way. Wherever India has gone this tournament, the pitch has turned slow and low. So honestly, you can’t really predict what will greet the players when they turn up on the field on Thursday.

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Irrespective of the kind of pitch though, it's a no-brainer that Ravichandran Ashwin has to bowl at Chris Gayle at the very start. If Gayle has one weakness, it is facing the ball that moves away from him at the start of his innings. We've seen how much success Ashwin has had by bowling early against the Jamaican in the IPL, and there's absolutely no chance Dhoni won't look to use that tactic again.

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Gayle doesn't move his feet a lot when he's just come in, but he gets better with every minute he spends at the crease. If India is to win this match, they absolutely have to get Gayle out early. And the best way of doing that is by unleashing Ashwin on him.

But even aside from Gayle, there are a lot of players in this West Indian side who are capable of hurting India. Their players seem to be born for T20 cricket, and they have spent years travelling around the world, playing in different leagues and honing their skills to perfection.

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The likes of Bravo, Russell, Samuels, Sammy are tall and strong, and they can hit the ball big. Even if they are not the best at rotating the strike, they can make up for that with their ferocious boundaries. Most of the West Indies' players have the X-factor that can turn a game on its head in a matter of minutes.

There are two other factors in their favour on Thursday. For one thing, they have played a match in Mumbai already so they are familiar with the conditions. Secondly, their captain Darren Sammy is an astute leader who knows how to manage his players well.

West Indies may not look like the best side on paper, but they are actually more coordinated and attuned to T20 cricket than all of India's previous opponents. They have also played a lot of cricket in the IPL, so they know what to expect from the grounds and from the Indian players.

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While they have come into the semifinal on the back of three wins, all of those victories were by very small margins. Moreover, except for New Zealand, all of their opponents failed to bring their best cricket – Bangladesh choked, Pakistan's batting failed to attack enough, and Australia couldn't quite get their team combination right.

West Indies don't seem likely to have any such problems. They have a power-packed batting lineup, but they've got the other departments covered too. The bowling has been fantastic - Samuel Badree has been economical in the powerplays, Dwayne Bravo has been exceptional with his slower balls, and Andre Russell and Carlos Brathwaite have been really good too. Even their fielding, traditionally a weak point of the Caribbean cricketers, has been top-notch so far.

India definitely has a lot to fear when they take the field on Thursday. To my mind, this is easily the toughest test that India has had to face in the tournament yet. So I can't really make a call on the likely winner of this match; at this point, all I'll say is that both teams have a 50% chance of winning.