India will beat Australia

Indian cricket fans, still smarting from the mauling England inflicted upon their team, might have sunken further into depression by the ODI series defeat they suffered at the hands of arch-rival, Pakistan. The team that sat on top of the test rankings just 17 months ago, and won the Cricket World Cup about 20 months ago, seems to be sliding downwards at an alarming rate.

To be fair, the Indian team has been significantly diminished by the loss of a couple great players and the diminution of the skills of others. Any team would have been weakened by the retirement of giants as large as Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman, while Sachin Tendulkar and Zaheer Khan have fallen from the high levels they previously inhabited.

Furthermore, the opening batsmen are currently underperforming; the search for a settled number six batsman continues; and the bowling unit, never top class even when India ruled the world, is often impotent in straighforward batting conditions. Indeed, there is reason for the Indian public to be downcast about the immediate future of their team, and many feel that India’s cricket is headed for a rather long night.

From time to time, however, there are bound to be periods when some light will shine through. Such instances, however, might serve to prolong the overall darkness if they delay or prevent reparative action by the authorities. They will be interludes of plenty in a time of famine.

Australia will travel to India for a four-test series beginning February 22, and despite the host country’s difficulties of late, they should, I propose, be victorious at the end. The Australian team, as it is currently constructed, will not be able to defeat the Indian team playing at home.

The Aussies will come with a formidable pace attack, but it is one that will be nullified by the conditions they will encounter. The most successful fast bowler during the England visit was James Anderson with 12 wickets at 30.25 apiece, but he is one of the world’s leading fast bowlers, having a command of reverse swing that no one in the Australian side can summon.

This series, not unlike the one against England, will, for the most part, be decided by spin bowling, despite captain MS Dhoni saying that pace bowling and batting were the main differences between the sides. The records show that in the four tests against England 82 wickets fell to spin, while the pacers only accounted for 28 batsmen, and it is highly probable that slow bowling will again dominate the coming test matches against Australia.

This is where India holds a strong advantage. England came to the subcontinent armed with two very high quality spinners who proceeded to outbowl – surprisingly for home fans and pundits – their Indian counterparts. And though Nathan Lyon, Australia’s principal twirler, is a hard trier, he does not yet operate at the level of Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar — Ashwin and Ojha will not be overshadowed this time round. And while it is unlikely they will have everything going their own way, like it did against New Zealand recently, they should, feasibly, limit Australia to totals that the home batsmen should be able to surpass.

Additionally, Australia’s batting is not at all frightening. Their openers, like India’s, are inconsistent, and the coming retirement of Michael Hussey is a huge blow to their middle order. Their one remaining great batsman, Michael Clarke, is a concern, but it is doubtful he could carry the visitors the way Alastair Cook carried England, or that he could get similar support from the other batsmen. Australia’s unsettled batting line-up has shown nothing that would suggest that they will be able to thwart the unremitting wiles of India’s bowlers in very helpful backyard conditions.

But, though India should end the series as comfortable victors, this should in no way blind them to the work they have to do in getting back to the top. A few home victories over inexperienced opponents without the weapons to overcome subcontinent conditions will not do it — they need to craft a team that can travel anywhere and beat anyone. That should be the goal of the authorities and periodic good performances at home should not divert them from that task.