IPL 2016 Fantasy Guru: Remember, it's only 80
It’s only 80 – keep telling yourself this before every single reckless substitution you are about to make, and you will be all right for the entirety of the tournament. A total of 80 substitutions for the group phase is not even 1.5 moves per match, so you can’t always bring in all the players you would like to have.
Sometimes all that you will be left to do is hope that the player you don’t have fails even though there is no logical reason to it, and if it doesn't work out, again hope that your counter ploy works out better or at least nullifies the loss. Exploit Schedule Mantra and its value-per-sub rule to counteract player sacrifices – the only way out of this predicament.
For that strategy to be effective, however, you will have to eliminate the number of unknown factors in play – nature of deck, playing XI and team tactics. At this point of the tournament, you have little idea of all these things. And the first 10-12 matches are scheduled in a way that most teams play the same number of matches at the end of it. So, for now, I am keeping it simple: back the best players.
I have split the league stage into 7 phases. In the first phase, which includes 8 matches, you will see me being more easy with transfers. As we move on though, a switch will be made from big names to shrewd moves.
Mumbai Indians
While it’s true that Lasith Malinga will be missed, with Jasprit Bumrah reaching a whole new level as compared to last year and the acquisition of Jos Buttler, this is Mumbai Indians’ tournament to lose. The task of predicting the team’s starting XI has been made easy by their star-studded think-tank, which has given enough clues about what you could expect from them in the match against Rising Pune Supergiants.
When asked about Buttler’s possibilities of playing, Ricky Ponting, the team’s head coach, said: "He would be one of the top five batsmen in the world in the Twenty20 format. He was one of the players we had targeted in the auction and we are lucky enough to have him in the MI squad. Having that quality of player in the squad creates great competition for a spot in our side, which as a coach is also great."
Also read: Mumbai Indians Team, Schedule and Venue Details
You wouldn’t leave out someone you regard as one of the world's top five batsmen, would you? Kieron Pollard seems to have regained his fitness, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see him take his rightful place in the side.
Rohit Sharma, on the other hand, has confirmed that he will open the innings. Here is what he had to say about his batting position: "I would like to open, at least in the initial games. We will see where we stand after the first few games. We have got a great set of batsmen in our squad, so there is a bit of a headache about whom to pick in the XI.”
Mumbai Indians committed the mistake of dropping Lendl Simmons last time, and nearly paid for it. So there are no reasons for them to try it again, especially with the number of runs the Caribbean batsman has scored for them in the last two seasons. Also, his World Cup heroics against India at the same venue has come at the right time for him.
As far as the fourth and final overseas spot is concerned, Mitchell McClenaghan was one of the players responsible for turning their season around last season, so he should feature in the playing XI. For his part, the left-arm fast bowler has done nothing wrong, performing admirably well for New Zealand in the just-concluded World Cup.
Team composition
Playing XI: Rohit Sharma, Lendl Simmons, Unmukt Chand, Jos Buttler, Kieron Pollard, Ambati Rayudu, Hardik Pandya, Jagadeesha Sucith/Vinay Kumar, Harbhajan SIngh, Jasprit Bumrah, Mitchell McClenaghan
Parthiv Patel should consider himself unlucky to miss out after his performances last season, but the team is better off without him. There is an outside chance that Corey Anderson could replace McClenaghan, so do keep an eye out for it. If he does play, it is advisable to wait to see his batting position before bringing him in. Anything below No.4, you can’t expect much.
The prices that they were bought for, you should see the likes of Nathu Singh, Krunal Pandya and Kishore Kamath come in at some stage of the season, but I will be very surprised if they get a game today.
Fantasy Factors
Rohit Sharma’s form – I was hoping that the World Cup semi-final would tell whether Rohit’s indifferent performances of late is because of him losing his form or the decks he has played on, but all that he did was dispatch horror deliveries and before he could convert his start, fell to a Samuel Badree delivery that spun in. In the initial phase of that knock, he did look very uncertain, which only increases my doubts about his form. The quality of bowlers in the IPL should, however, make it easy for him.
Ambati Rayudu’s batting position – Toward’s the end of the last season, Rayudu was pushed down the order. It worked well for the team, but doesn’t help us much. What makes his case worse is with Buttler in, his chances of making an impact will further be limited.
Jasprit Bumrah – I am still finding it difficult to believe that there is a young Indian bowler who could bowl yorkers at will. While Zaheer Khan and Ashish Nehra have been effective at the death at different stages of their career, none of them were this consistent at Bumrah’s age. The right-arm pacer’s death bowling skills could bring him a lot of cheap wickets; together with Dwayne Bravo and Mustafizur Rahman, I am predicting him to end up as one of the top 5 wicket-takers in the tournament.
Rising Pune Supergiants
Experts have raised concerns over the Supergiants not having in-form power-hitters in their side, but I don’t think you need them when you have the likes of Faf du Plessis, Ajinkya Rahane and Kevin Pietersen at the top. More often than not, those 3 with MS Dhoni, Mitchell Marsh, and one of Steven Smith/Albie Morkel should take you home with the bat.
Their main issue lies in the bowling department. With the exception of Ravichandran Ashwin, I don’t see a bowler who could limit runs, leave alone win a match for them. And on good batting decks, even Ashwin could be negated.
Also Read: Greatest IPL XI of all time
Predicted playing XI: Ajinkya Rahane, Faf du Plessis, Steve Smith/Albie Morkel at 6, Kevin Pietersen, MS Dhoni, Mitchell Marsh, Irfan Pathan, M Ashwin/Rajat Bhatia, R Ashwin, Ishant Sharma, Ishwar Pandey, Ashok Dinda/RP Singh.
Fantasy factors
Albie-Smithie-KP: Kevin Pietersen has had a great last 6-8 months playing T20 cricket for different franchises around the world, but his success was mainly built on him playing at No.3, which made sure he had more deliveres to have an impact. If Steve Smith plays ahead of Albie Morkel here, Pietersen would be pushed down to No.4.
While the former England international has the gears to go berserk, he is not your typical slogger to expect him to consistently fire with just 8 overs to play – a situation he will likely find himself in throughout the season. However, if Morkel plays, KP batting at 3 could end up as one of the top run-getters this tournament.
Mr. Dependable: Ajinkya Rahane might not come off as the ideal T20 player at the international level, but in domestic matches he has been mighty effective. The main reason for it is the number of easy targets available in IPL; at the highest level though, you need to have the skills to wield the long handle even against the best in the business.
Faf du Plessis: Du Plessis showed signs of the kind of form he was in during the World Cup, but could never really go big. That’s partly due to the position he was played at: 4. Back opening the innings, expect the CSK version to turn up.
The deck at Pune: Over the years, Pune has provided all sorts of wickets that it is difficult to predict what you will be getting this season. Du Plessis and Pietersen could be excellent options on a sporting wicket, but on slow, low wickets not so much. You would rather go with someone like Ravichandran Ashwin.
MI vs RPS – Fantasy Picks
The site wasn’t working at the time of writing this article, so I couldn’t get you the exact screenshot of my team.
Faf du Plessis – Impact-cum-budget pick
Lendl Simmons and Ajinkya Rahane – Form, position and value-per-sub picks
Jasprit Bumrah – Permanent slot-in. Predict to be among season’s top 5 wicket-takers
Rohit Sharma – Lack of better alternative, flat track-weak bowling attack bully and value-per-sub
Jos Buttler – You don't need an explanation
Captain – Lendl Simmons (if Mumbai chase)/Jos Buttler (if Mumbai bat first)
Notable omissions
Kieron Pollard: For some bizarre reason, Mumbai have never really used Pollard the bowler, which basically makes him a No.5/6 bat at best – that’s needing a lot of things to go your way to be rewarding fantasy-wise. While I don’t think you can get 4 overs out of him, he is useful enough to bowl a couple of overs every match. Now that Buttler is in, his batting potential takes a hit as well.
Kevin Pietersen: The choice was between Du Plessis and Pietersen. That Du Plessis is cheaper and bats higher made me incline towards the former. The move could work extremely well if Steve Smith plays.
Top uncapped player pick: Unmukt Chand, followed by Ishwar Pandey.
I couldn’t exactly recall the remaining 5 players, but it looked something like this: Shreyas Iyer, Andre Russell/Dwayne Bravo, Umesh Yadav, Piyush Chawla and Deepak Hooda. I am not really sure, and with no idea of players’ individual prices, I can’t guide you with it here. So, take your call. Mine should most probably change too.