IPL and the bell shaped curve
The grand reality show has now entered its most exciting stage, with at least 6 teams having a fair chance to making it to playoffs. I have seen all sorts of statistics and graphs being made out of various team performances. Let me also become a dummy mathematician today and try to explain the positioning of teams along the well known bell shaped curve. In simple language, Bell shaped curve implies that in any group consisting of significant number of members, most of the people fall under average category denoted by the bulge at the center of the bell. A few out-performers are at the extreme right end while a few under-performers lie at the left end.
A) Teams
IPL & Bell shaped curve
The right red side
These denote the teams that have dominated the IPL so far, which have to be DD & KKR. Good all round performances have ensured that these 2 teams have maximum chances of going through to the playoffs. Few chinks and concerns like too much dependency on the top order and on 1-2 bowlers , remain though.
The left red side
They are perhaps not as bad as the ranking table shows. They may not be lucky enough but the fact remains that PWI & DC have been thoroughly outplayed in the tournament and they now play their remaining matches just for pride. I am sure they will bounce back next season on a stronger note.
The big blue
These include all teams fighting for that coveted 3rd & 4th place in the playoffs: MI,CSK,RCB,KXIP and RR. Only the teams having nerves of steel will be able to go through the next round.
The pink areas:
The one on the right-hand side denotes teams with better chances of making it to playoffs, considering the current points table. These would be MI, CSK, RCB. The pink area on the left naturally includes RR, KXIP who have a slightly tougher road ahead of them, as compared to the above mentioned teams.
Lets see if the classification of teams in the regions done on the basis of the current points table changes as we advance deeper into the final stages of the IPL.
B) Batsmen & bowlers
The outperforming batsmen include the likes of Gayle, Gambhir, Rahane etc. who have blasted the bowlers all over the park; next in the big blue come in those who have scored around 250-350 runs while there are quite a few laggers, including a few hyped ones like Kohli, Jadeja, Yusuf Pathan, etc. Similar analysis can be made for bowlers also, in which Morkel & Malinga would be hot red, closely followed by Steyn, Narine and Munaf. The ones on the left side will be mostly from teams languishing at the bottom of the table. One of the most neglected area is the fielding department, and for many teams, the bell will be tilted to the left considering the fielding standards in this year’s IPL.
How can teams benefit out of this bell shaped curve? They can find out how many of their bowlers, batsmen, fielders lie in which category. The numbers for all the teams will follow the bell shaped curve, but the bell should not be bulging too much at the center or too tapering towards the left. We have seen that the table toppers DD & KKR are vulnerable if their selected few fail to perform. RCB & MI also seem to have the same problem as far as their batting is concerned. In that context, CSK seems pretty much in a balanced bell shape. Teams must try to “push” the players towards the right end of the bell shaped curve and/or include as many performing ones i.e the “right” candidates as possible, to maximize their chances of succeeding in the final 2 -3 weeks at the IPL.