Is Virat Kohli the right fit for number 4 in the Indian ODI side?
India's ODI batting line-up is one of the strongest in the world. However, this batting line-up also relies heavily on its top three batters to shoulder the burden of scoring most of its runs. In fact, often, when the top three batsmen fall cheaply, the remaining struggle to post or chase a stiff target. That's a weakness India's opponents have sought to exploit effectively. The good news is that the top three deliver more often than not; but, the bad news is that without a reliable #4 batsman, India remains vulnerable going into the 2019 World Cup.
Virat Kohli, the world's best batsman, owns the #3 position in India's batting line-up. He has been a virtual run-machine in that position. Despite struggling to find a reliable #4 batsman, India is reluctant to consider playing Kohli in that slot for fear of adversely affecting his performance. So, let's examine the potential fall-outs, of moving Kohli to the #4 spot, and determine whether the evidence supports or contradicts these fall-outs.
Fall-Out #1: Kohli's Run Production May Decline
The concern, that tinkering with Kohli's batting position would somehow adversely impact his run-making ability, is a justifiable one. However, Kohli is no stranger to the #4 position. He owns it in Tests and has significant experience in that position in ODI's as well.
In fact, some key statistics, such as his batting average, strike rate, and century per innings ratio at the #3 and #4 positions, demonstrate that his record, in both positions, is comparable.
Fall-Out #2: Kohli will Face Fewer Balls at the #4 Position
Clearly, to move a batsman down one spot in the batting order means, effectively, to reduce the number of balls he faces in an innings. So, understandably, India doesn't want Kohli to move down one spot. However, moving him to the #4 slot brings balance and stability to the middle order.
And that ultimately is a net benefit to India's cause. Moreover, Kohli has, on a number of occasions, advocated that India's batsmen must be ready to bat in whichever position the team requires them to bat. So, here's another chance for him to lead by example.
Fall-Out #3: No Replacement for Kohli at the #3 Position
There's no question Kohli is simply an irreplaceable commodity. No matter which batting position he vacates, it's impossible to get a like-for-like replacement for him. India's best bet would be to promote Dhoni to fill Kohli's #3 slot. Dhoni's record suggests that he's more than capable of handling the challenges of the #3 position.
In his career, Dhoni's batted everywhere, from the #3 to the #8 position. He has been incredibly successful as a "finisher" in the #6 position. However, since the emergence of Hardik Pandya, Dhoni's role in the lower middle order has become somewhat muddled. Lately, his performances suggest that he's confused about his role in the #6 spot.
The recently concluded ODI series against England provided enough evidence to support that assertion. However, interestingly, Dhoni's batting record in the #3 position is noteworthy. In that position, his batting average and strike rate are significantly higher than at any other position he's batted.
Moreover, he's scored 183*, his highest individual score in ODI's, in that position, as well. Admittedly, he has played only sixteen games in the #3 position. But his sterling record demonstrates that he has the requisite skills and temperament to excel in that spot.
So, the evidence clearly suggests that India can and should move Kohli to the #4 slot. His presence there will help restore confidence and discipline to the middle order. In addition, by replacing Kohli with Dhoni at the #3 slot, India will ensure that the top order's affinity to score runs continues unhindered.
(All the stats were taken from Howstat.com)