"We are moving fast towards our 3rd consecutive WTC final" - Aakash Chopra on India and other teams' chances of reaching World Test Championship final
Aakash Chopra reckons India are heading towards their third consecutive World Test Championship (WTC) final. He feels Australia are also favorably placed to make it a repeat of the last edition's summit clash.
The WTC final will be played at Lord's from June 11, 2025. India and Australia are currently the top two teams in the points table with 68.52 and 62.50 percentage points, respectively.
In a video shared on his YouTube channel, Chopra opined that India should qualify for the WTC final if they win a couple of Tests in the away series against Australia as long as they fare well in the preceding home series against Bangladesh and New Zealand.
"Let's talk about India first. We are moving fast towards our third consecutive WTC final. In fact, we are running. India are the table toppers currently. They have 10 matches left. If India win all their 10 matches, our best possible finish will be 85%," he said (0:55).
"However, I feel our place in the final will be secured even if we win one or two matches in Australia, provided we do well at home against Bangladesh and New Zealand and it's better if we don't drop matches there," the former India opener added.
Chopra noted that Australia are likely to qualify for the WTC final if they register a 4-1 win in the home series against India.
"The defending champions Australia are very strong contenders. Australia still have two series left. One is against us, which will have five Tests, and the second is against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka. Their place at Lord's will be secured if they beat us 4-1. If they win all seven Tests, their maximum point percentage will be 76.3%," he observed.
Chopra feels third-placed New Zealand have a slightly arduous task of reaching the final.
"New Zealand's road is slightly tough. They have eight matches left. The problem is that they will have to play the first two Test matches against Sri Lanka in Galle, that won't be easy. If they came out from there, they have to play three against India, and then three Tests in the end at home against England," he explained.
"If they win seven matches, they can get a place in the final but the job will be difficult. If they win all eight matches, their percentage will become 78.57, which is fantastic, but I don't think it's going to happen," Chopra added.
New Zealand defeated India in the final of the inaugural World Test Championship. However, the Kiwis finished sixth in the previous cycle and will want to regain a berth in the title decider.
"I still see their WTC final hopes as tough" - Aakash Chopra on Bangladesh
In the same video, Aakash Chopra opined that Bangladesh have an uphill task to reach the WTC final despite their decent current standing in the points table.
"If we talk about our neighbors Bangladesh, the current standing is looking very good. They are at No. 4. However, I still see their WTC final hopes as tough. They have six matches left in total, which includes two in India, two in West Indies, and two at home against South Africa. If they win all those matches, they can reach 72.9%. They will need to win at least five of the six matches for their qualification chances to remain alive," he said (3:40).
The cricketer-turned-commentator pointed out that England need to win their remaining matches and hope for other results to go their way to qualify for the final.
"If England want to reach the final, they have two upcoming tours, which includes three Test matches against Pakistan and three Test matches against New Zealand. If England win all these six matches, their percentage points can go maximum to 62.5, which is not great. They will also be dependent a lot on the India-Australia results," Chopra stated.
Chopra reckons seventh-placed South Africa still have a decent chance to make the grade.
"If we talk about South Africa, it seems like they are stumbling but they have chances. Their max percentage points can go up to 69.4, which is higher than England. They have six Test matches left. They have to play three series, two at home - Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and then they have to go and win two Tests in Bangladesh. South Africa can go above India if they win all matches and India lose three matches in Australia," he reasoned.
Chopra opined that the WTC final should be a three-game affair and be held outside England. He also proposed a two-tier system, with promotions and relegations, to enhance the interest in the tournament.