Pakistan or New Zealand - whose early exit from T20 World Cup 2024 was a bigger shock?
The 2024 T20 World Cup Super Eights are all set with almost all the big-ticket teams joining a couple of unexpected entrants. While two inconsequential league-stage games remain, the focus has naturally shifted to the Super Eight and semi-final predictions among fans and experts.
Yet, it is also the time to reflect on the two biggest shocking exits from the tournament - Pakistan and New Zealand. Both teams entered the World Cup among the favorites to qualify for the semi-final but were ousted prematurely even before the Super Eights.
It was just two years back they played against each other in the semi-final of the 2022 edition in Australia. Led by two of the most respected cricketers, Babar Azam and Kane Williamson, Pakistan and New Zealand were also in the top four in the 2021 T20 World Cup due to which their early exit sent shockwaves around the cricketing world.
As the post-mortem sets up in both camps, let us look back and analyze the bigger shock between Pakistan and New Zealand's early exit.
#1 Who came into the tournament with more expectations?
The bigger the expectations, the bigger the shock when a team falls woefully short of those expectations. With that in mind, it is a no-brainer to conclude that New Zealand came into the World Cup with higher expectations to go deeper into the competition than Pakistan for various reasons.
The Kiwis were in much better overall T20I form in the past few months, including a 2-2 drawn affair in Pakistan with a second-string side in their latest series before the tournament. While they suffered a 0-3 loss to Australia before that, New Zealand also thrashed Pakistan 4-1 at home in January.
Barring the Australia debacle, New Zealand hadn't lost a series since a 1-2 defeat to India in February 2023.
It was quite the opposite for the 2009 champions as it pertained to the recent T20I form, with the side losing 0-2 to England in their most recent series before the T20 World Cup. Before that, they almost suffered a shocking series defeat to Ireland before scrapping through 2-1.
A 2-2 drawn home series against a New Zealand B-side and a 1-4 walloping to the same opponent before that meant expectations were much lower for Pakistan. Also worth remembering is the side undergoing several internal turmoils, including a sudden change in captaincy with Babar Azam replacing Shaheen Afridi after the latter led the lone T20I series in New Zealand.
Considering the above, New Zealand's early exit was undeniably a bigger shock than Pakistan's.
Bigger shock: New Zealand
#2 Recent history in T20 World Cups and other ICC events
While Pakistan were part of the top four in the previous two T20 World Cups, New Zealand have been a model of consistency in ICC tournaments across formats. The Blackcaps qualified for the final four in the last three T20 World Cups, dating back to 2016.
They also made two finals and a semi-final in the last three ODI World Cups and added a World Test Championship title to their kitty in 2021. Despite not winning the World Cup title in the white-ball ICC events, Kane Williamson's men have been arguably the most consistent side over the past decade.
The same cannot be said for Pakistan, who bowed out before the semi-final in the last three ODI World Cups and the 2014 and 2016 T20 World Cups.
Pakistan's topsy-turvy recent World Cup history and their unpredictability make their early exit less shocking compared to New Zealand's, considering their usually remarkable consistency.
Bigger shock: New Zealand
#3 Whose in-tournament upset defeats were more shocking?
Both Pakistan and New Zealand lost two games in their group stage (New Zealand still has a game remaining) but neither Pakistan's loss to India nor New Zealand's defeat to West Indies can be considered much of a surprise.
However, the Men in Green losing to minnows USA and the Kiwis being manhandled by the lower-ranked Afghanistan were the shockers in their respective groups. Just in terms of the result, Pakistan losing to the USA was a bigger upset than New Zealand's to Afghanistan, considering the latter's recent growth leading to them being recognized as a much better side.
Yet, the margin of defeat opens up gory details about New Zealand's frailties as they lost by an embarrassing 84 runs compared to Pakistan's being in a Super Over.
Hence, weighing up the two would mean Pakistan's being a bigger shocker on face value while New Zealand's defeat margin makes theirs a more shocking result.
Bigger shock: Tie
In conclusion, the unexpected early exits of Pakistan and New Zealand shook the 2024 T20 World Cup and had fans of both teams providing scathing reviews. Yet, considering the higher expectations and past performances in ICC events, New Zealand's ouster from the tournament remains undeniably the bigger shock.