Where is the Australia we've known in World Cups?
"Very few teams hold their nerve as well as the Aussies do in the crunch moments - a fact reflected in something as basic as the many safe catchers that they have in their ranks."
This was a statement made by this writer in a pre-tournament prediction piece that touted Australia as one of the favorites for the 2023 World Cup.
It has fallen flat on his face, hasn't it?
But is it fair to go that far already considering that the five-time champions have just played two of the nine round-robin matches in their campaign? Up for debate, but one must admit they've looked like a pale shadow of the Australian teams that have graced the sport's most iconic global event over time and cast themselves as a revered and feared outfit in the eyes of their opponents.
Humbled by India and decimated by South Africa - a lot has gone wrong for Pat Cummins and his men. They certainly haven't reached doomsday yet but it isn't far away if some of their critical components don't fall into place soon.
Australia have suffered the wrong end of the stick...
It's down to circumstance and it's something that nobody can do much about. It's certainly not something one can point a fair finger towards either. But Australia will feel hard done by an incredibly tough schedule towards the first half of their 2023 World Cup campaign.
As if facing India's assortment of spinners on a muggy Chepauk surface wasn't enough, they were slated to play their next two games in Lucknow - a venue where a slug-fest was expected but instead, it posed uncertainty owing to a re-laid pitch.
One couldn't blame Cummins for electing to field first on that count alone on Thursday, with the Protea challenge awaiting them. The idea was simple - assess how the surface plays out and approach the chase accordingly while hoping dew sets in.
Except, it went kaput. The frontline bowlers were way off their mark - save for Mitchell Starc and South Africa's openers, Temba Bavuma, and Quinton de Kock, turned in a masterclass on minimizing the percentage of dot deliveries in the powerplay. They never looked back since and despite a late resurgence from Australia's bowlers at the death, they were handed a target of 312.
Not a daunting score by a South African side that clearly looked like a determined lot, but it was a challenge. We won't get into the ball-tracking discourse around Steve Smith's dismissal or whether Marcus Stoinis' right glove was off the handle in entirety or not. Australia got the rough end of the stick there but the way they came crashing down, it might not have mattered in any case.
With these two games out of the way, you'd think it only ought to get better for Australia. Except, they're up against Sri Lanka next - again at Lucknow.
Longer boundary dimensions and some assistance for spin is exactly what will put Sri Lanka's bowlers into the contest, after the shellacking they've taken on flat surfaces in Delhi and Hyderabad. And if Australia's woes against spin are anything to go by, this is not going to be a pretty picture in itself.
The Aussies will be ruing the absence of Travis Head but they had the option of replacing him altogether. When Ashton Agar was ruled out of the 2023 World Cup, they chose to pick a solitary specialist spinner in Adam Zampa and bolt Marnus Labuschagne into the 15-man squad.
Head's absence hasn't been felt more tellingly and for gambling on his availability for the second half of the tournament, Australia will hope he not only recovers quickly but also hits the ground running once he's available.
Notwithstanding that, they need Zampa to rekindle his best sooner than later with the leg-spinner looking nowhere close to the wicket-taking threat he has been in the last three years or so.
The problems don't end there though. If anything, Zampa's return to form is one of multiple boxes that Australia need to tick at this point.
...but there are many woes plaguing the side
It's a concoction of wrongs that have pulled Australia back so far at the World Cup. Not one of their batters has posted a half-century in these two games. That, for a batting lineup that is capable of causing plenty of destruction, is a telling story even if they were up against two quality bowling units on surfaces that were by no means a batting paradise.
Their bowlers haven't been poor as such but they haven't been threatening either. One can go on to say that had it not been for Ishan Kishan and Shreyas Iyer's poor shot selection, the position they found themselves in against India could have possibly been a distant reality although that again boils down to their batters not posting a significant total to challenge the hosts.
As for the fielding...they've slacked rather tellingly, haven't they?
A catching efficiency of 54 percent as indicated by a graphic from the broadcaster is a damning indictment of how they've slacked on that front. So unlike Australia and a complete contradiction to what one would have expected of the team.
In many ways though, the onus falls back on their captain. Cummins' tactics have come under intense scrutiny even if he hasn't been helped by his teammates' lackluster showing. But here's the rub - he happens to be one of those aforementioned critical components himself who has underwhelmed in these two games with the ball.
His strategies have been questionable too. The India game for instance - the hosts were languishing at 2/3. A position of strength for Australia but with just 199 runs to play with, the margin for error was nil.
By the time Zampa was introduced into the attack as late as the 18th over, Virat Kohli and KL Rahul forged a partnership of 54, which then swelled to 165. Australia had no way back against two well-set, technically sound batters who absorbed the pressure of the challenge in front of them.
Going on the defensive was reflective of Cummins' captaincy during the Ashes as well. It was evident in the very first hour of the series when Zak Crawley 'Bazballed' his way from the word go and left the visitors clueless.
It's a different story that Australia led that series 2-0 at one point but the lack of proactiveness in terms of strategy was as clear as daylight.
Belief and conviction - Australia need plenty of it now
There's another subtle aspect the team would want to look into - conviction in their selection policy. One game into the World Cup certainly isn't the right time to tell Alex Carey that he's being left out. Particularly given how big a role he has played in this setup for a good few years now and when the possibility of him retaining his spot had the team begun with a win was not far-fetched.
It's contrary to the weight thrown behind a fit-again Stoinis, who has averaged under 17 in 21 ODI innings since 2020. But now that the call has been made, both Stoinis and Josh Inglis must be entrusted with the belief they require, lest another round of changing the combination lead to uncertainty in the minds of the players.
Two games into the 2023 World Cup, Australia are down. They're not out and it would take a courageous person to count them out. The mentality of champions is instilled within the Australian DNA and it has often come to the fore over the years, particularly at the World Cup.
They cannot shy away from the truth either though: that champion mentality is hiding in a closet at this point and is nowhere to be seen. Australia need to find the key to that closet and revive that mindset before the horse bolts.
It certainly isn't late with seven games to go in the round-robin stage of the World Cup. But there's no denying that Australia have been jolted. And it's going to take an immense test of character and self-belief to put out a version of themselves that justifies the kind of team they have on paper.