World Cup 2019: One unique problem facing all the qualifying teams in the semi-finals
The three teams who have already qualified for the semi-finals of World Cup 2019 are India, Australia, and England. New Zealand will be the fourth team to join the race, in all probability, since Pakistan’s mathematical chances of brushing aside New Zealand are negligible because of their poor run rate.
By securing one of the top two spots, India have conveniently stayed away from defending champions Australia. They will either meet England or New Zealand in the semi-finals depending upon the outcome of the two matches that will be played on Saturday, July 6, 2019.
The one team which defied pre-tournament predictions by its disappointing performance was South Africa. While Pakistan and West Indies, as always, remained the dark horses in this ICC tournament as well, nothing dramatic was expected from the Asian teams Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan in English conditions. Despite their impressive performances, Bangladesh have fallen short of a semis berth and a late charge from Pakistan seems to have been insufficient as well. Sri Lanka were never consistent in the long tournament to warrant a place in the last four.
India's problems
Moving forward, this Indian team has some inherent weaknesses like a fragile middle-order, the surprising lack of batting firepower in the death overs (till now), the ineffectiveness of the wrist-spinners on flat decks and the absence of a sixth bowling option.
Besides the Indian team, however, all the other teams who have qualified for the semi-finals are confronted by a unique problem going into the semi-finals. That problem may be classified as the lack of opportunities and a perceived apprehension in chasing down targets.
The chasing conundrum
India had batted second only twice in this tournament. They won their first match against South Africa batting second comfortably. Thereafter, they were required to chase only in their seventh match against England which they lost despite their best efforts.
The used wickets in England have slowed down considerably in the last two weeks or so.If one were to compare the first half of the tournament with the second half, in the first 19 completed matches of the tournament, there had been an even spread of 10 matches being won by the team batting first and the other nine matches by teams batting second.
In the 19 completed matches in the second half of the tournament, an astonishing number of 15 matches were won by teams batting first. This goes to prove how important is the toss has become in winning matches as the tournament progressed. In tune with the changing trend, the preferences of the captains at the toss has also changed. Even a team like the West Indies, who were inclined to bowl first in every match, have learned their lessons and decided to bat first in their last match of the tournament against Afghanistan.
Against this background, all the four teams in the fray would be looking to win the toss and bat first and India is no exception. In such a scenario, a daredevil captain may think out of the box and pack his team with more batsmen to go against the grain and chase. In any case, if the other captain wins the toss, he might anyway have to bat first and the all the teams must be ready for this worst-case scenario and strategize accordingly. But, it is unlikely that any captain will take that huge risk in the knockout stages of a World Cup.
How batting first has mattered
New Zealand lost their last two matches where they had to chase. England won their last two critical matches conveniently after electing to bat first. Before that they lost to Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia batting second. In fact, their unexpected loss to Sri Lanka whilst chasing had opened up the tournament.
Australia’s position is similar to India. After losing to India chasing in their third match, Australia had batted first in the next five matches and won them all comfortably by margins of 41,87,48,64 and 86 runs respectively. The only time Australia batted second and completed a successful run chase was in their very first match against Afghanistan way back in the fourth match of the tournament. They might, in theory, have the bowling firepower to restrict teams, nonetheless, they will also be comfortable batting first and piling up runs on the board as per the winning formula so far.
Though New Zealand was at the receiving end in the last two matches that they chased, that experience should stand them in good stead going into the semi-finals. Compared to the other three teams, New Zealand are at an advantage in this respect.
India's position
Compared to the other teams, the pressure will be more on India to win the toss and bat first since they have not been exposed a great deal to chasing targets in this tournament.
India’s other weaknesses could all be masked and brushed under the carpet if Virat Kohli manages to win the toss and bat first in the knockout matches. Hence, the toss becomes a crucial factor for all the four teams. They have a fearsome top-order and a well-tuned bowling attack, but they have not bowled first with success since the first match against South Africa.
The decisions regarding team selection for all teams will have to address the issue of chasing and what is the ideal combination in such a scenario. For India, Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Ravindra Jadeja could enter the fray as they are capable lower-order batsmen and competent bowlers.
The semi-finals are set to be intriguing battles and adding to the intrigue will be the toss which has become a vital element in the latter stages of the tournament.