3 factors to determine the WTC final favorite between India and New Zealand
On June 18, India and New Zealand, two powerhouses of Test cricket, will lock horns at Southampton for the inaugural World Test Championship final as per WTC final schedule. It could not have come at a better time to elevate the mood of cricket fans, who were abruptly deprived of IPL 2021 action at a time when an escape was the need of the hour.
In order to establish which side would walk out of the dugout as favorites, three factors stand out:
1. Journey to the final: India
Both sides have shown utmost dominance at home and this championship has been no different. India easily swatted away South Africa, Bangladesh and England. Similarly, New Zealand thrashed West Indies and Pakistan.
The challenge came in the form of away games. While India visited the West Indies and swept the series 2-0, they tasted some of that same medicine at the hands of New Zealand. Outplayed in all departments by the hosts, the men from the subcontinent lost the two-match series 2-0.
New Zealand also went to Sri Lanka, where they fought hard and were able to draw the series 1-1.
However, one way to judge their overseas performance would be to look at their performances in their respective tours of Australia. New Zealand was thoroughly outplayed in the summer of 2019, with their losing margin worsening with each passing match as they crumbled 3-0.
For India, the summer of 2020 would go into the history books. After getting dismissed for 36 during the great Adelaide collapse, they fought back in the next three matches. Injuries led to their squad depleting exponentially as the matches went on but they won the Boxing Day match and drew the New Year's Test before breaching the Gabba fortress.
Looking at their will to fight and players who rise to the occasion in every difficult situation, this point goes to India squad for WTC final for being a better team overseas than New Zealand.
2. Preparation for the final: New Zealand
The Indian squad is scheduled to leave for the UK on June 2, after which the players will have to undergo quarantine and might only be able to partake in small practice sessions. New Zealand squad for WTC final, on the other hand, are scheduled to play two Test matches against England. This will provide them with much-needed match practice and help them acclimatize to the conditions better.
While Kiwi skipper Kane Williamson will enjoy a more thorough preparation before the final, his Indian counterpart Virat Kohli will have to settle for practice sessions and intra-squad matches. Given the 32-year-old's patchy form recently, and how much the Indian batting effort depends on his score-making, it will be quite the task for him to be at his best, both temperamentally as well as technically.
Hence, there is no doubt that New Zealand will feel more comfortable with the conditions when they walk out on the pitch.
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3. Ground conditions: India
India will be the happier side once the venue shifts from Lord's to to Southampton - a spin-friendly ground rather than seam-friendly. It will bring Ravindra Jadeja and Ravichandran Ashwin into the mix, and given the struggles of New Zealand players against spin, this ground will be more favorable to India. Moreover, the form of Rishabh Pant on spin-friendly pitches has been exceptional recently and his side will be hoping he can bring his game-changing abilities to the fore once more.
Considering these three factors, India has the edge over New Zealand in being considered favorites for the final. But given the Kiwis' appetite for a fight when they are down, and how they have managed to be one of the best teams in ICC tournaments, expect a tough arm-wrestle on June 18 to determine whether it is Kohli or Williamson who eventually lifts his first ICC trophy.