WTC Final Prediction: Who will win the IND vs NZ match?
One of the biggest games in the history of Test cricket is finally here as India and New Zealand face off in the final of the inaugural World Test Championship (WTC) at the Rose Bowl in Southampton, starting Friday, June 18.
With Kane Williamson and BJ Watling adjudged fit, both teams are at full strength, hinting at an extremely competitive encounter. The fact that New Zealand have played a two-Test series in England ahead of the WTC final has been a topic of heated discussion, although India and captain Virat Kohli have been dismissive of any advantage the Blackcaps might have as a result.
India and New Zealand come into the WTC final searching for some elusive ICC tournament success. Kohli's men have fallen short in the 2017 Champions Trophy final, 2018 T20 World Cup semi-final and 2019 ODI World Cup semi-final, while the Kiwis have tasted defeat in consecutive ODI World Cup finals.
The previous meeting between the two sides in New Zealand last year ended in a 2-0 whitewash for the hosts. Kyle Jamieson had a memorable debut series as the Indian batting lineup came a cropper. But the significance of the WTC final and all that is on the line makes this match-up a completely different proposition.
WTC Final Prediction: Who will come out on top in Southampton - India or New Zealand?
The key to the WTC final lies in the batting department of both teams. India and New Zealand have world-class bowling attacks that will probably take 20 wickets each over the course of the Test match, but the time taken for those wickets and subsequent runs scored will be the differentiating factor.
Can Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill blunt the new ball against canny operators in Trent Boult and Tim Southee? Can Cheteshwar Pujara overcome his century drought and reach the three-figure mark in Southampton? Can Virat Kohli, who has a century drought of his own, finally lead from the front in an ICC knockout game?
There are several more questions to be asked ahead of the WTC final. Ajinkya Rahane's form has come under scrutiny in the recent past, while the lower order may be severely compromised if India choose to leave out either Ravindra Jadeja or Ravichandran Ashwin and play an extra pacer.
On the other hand, New Zealand have a far more settled lineup, at least on paper. Tom Latham and Devon Conway were exceptional in the recent Test series against England, while Williamson has been in a rich vein of form in red-ball cricket over the last year. Ross Taylor and Henry Nicholls have been ever-present for the Blackcaps in the recent past, and BJ Watling will eye a memorable swansong after a highly underrated Test career.
The Kiwis might opt to play Ajaz Patel ahead of Colin de Grandhomme and Mark Henry against an Indian team whose top five is made up of right-handers, but the threat of Rishabh Pant hovers over the left-arm spinner. Otherwise, the four-pronged pace attack that has brought New Zealand countless Test victories at home will be licking their lips at the prospect of bowling in Southampton.
And while Kohli and Indian coach Ravi Shastri can dismiss the benefit New Zealand will extract from playing two Tests in the country ahead of the WTC final, it's definitely something that will come into play.
The weather forecast for the five days of the WTC final doesn't look too encouraging, although Sunil Gavaskar recently insisted that it's sunny in the English city. If rain comes into play, and it seems inevitable that it will, flashbacks to the curtailed 2019 World Cup semi-final will trouble the Indians.
Moreover, the prospect of rain could throw India's selection plans into disarray. They might be prompted to bring in an extra batsman in Hanuma Vihari in place of one of the spinners, while going in with a four-man seam attack is another option that could possibly weaken the batting.
It must be said that if it rains in Southampton during the WTC final, New Zealand will be at a significant advantage. They have the bowlers to exploit the conditions better and they won't have to worry about the balance of the team or the depth of the batting order. But if the weather gods relent on allowing five full days of Test cricket, India - who have a lethal spin duo - will back themselves to pull off a historic win.
We've often seen teams lose Test matches in the matter of a session or two, and the importance of winning big moments in the WTC final cannot be understated. The result of the match will come down to which team implements their plans better and holds their nerve during challenging phases of play.
If you were to go solely on the weather forecast and the strength of the two teams on paper, as well as the head-to-head records between the bowlers and the batsmen, New Zealand start the WTC final as the favorites. But it would be criminal to rule out an Indian win, especially after the heroic efforts they put up against Australia and England.
Prediction: New Zealand to win the WTC final