WTC final qualification scenarios: How India, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Sri Lanka can qualify for the World Test Championship final?
New Zealand beat India by 113 runs in the second Test at the Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium in Pune, played as part of the ongoing World Test Championship (WTC). By virtue of their win, they created history, registering their maiden Test series triumph in India. Earlier, the Kiwis had beaten the hosts by eight wickets in Bengaluru to register their first Test win in India after 36 years.
New Zealand won the toss and batted first in the Pune Test. They were bowled out for 259 as off-spinner Washington Sundar starred with 7-59. India, however, came up with another poor batting effort to fold up for 156 in response. Kiwi left-arm spinner Mitchell Santner registered career-best Test figures of 7-53.
Having gained a significant 103-run lead, New Zealand posted 255 in their second innings to set India a target of 359. While Yashasvi Jaiswal gave India hope with 77, Santner again starred with 6-104 as Kiwis bowled out India for 245 to register one of their most famous Test series triumphs.
Back-to-back losses against New Zealand have not only made India's qualification path for the World Test Championship (WTC) final trickier, but have also elevated the hopes of a few other sides in contention. On that note, here's a look at the WTC final qualification scenarios for India, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka.
India (PCT: 62.82)
To be assured of a place in their third consecutive WTC final, India need to beat New Zealand in the third Test in Mumbai and then win at least three matches during their tour of Australia. As per a report in ESPNcricinfo, a 3-2 triumph over the Aussies will take their points percentage (PCT) to 64.04.
In the above scenario, even if Australia beat Sri Lanka 2-0, their PCT will be 60.53 even with two wins against India at home. If New Zealand hammer England 3-0 at home after losing the Mumbai Test, their PCT will still stand at 57.14. In such a case, South Africa will be the only team that can better India's points percentage.
In the event of India losing the Mumbai Test, New Zealand can get to a PCT of 64.29 if they beat England 3-0. In such a scenario, India must win four Tests in Australia and draw one to be assured of a place in the WTC final. India stand a chance of making it to the final with fewer wins as well, but a lot of other permutations and combinations need to go their way.
Australia: (PCT 62.50)
Defending WTC champions Australia are currently second in the points table. They will play two away Tests against Sri Lanka after five at home against India. To be assured of WTC final qualification without depending on other teams, Australia must win five of their remaining seven Tests.
If they beat India 3-2 and win 1-0 in Sri Lanka, Australia's PCT will be 62.28, which cannot be surpassed by India. New Zealand can go past them, but only if they win all their remaining matches. If Kiwis stumble even in one game, then South Africa will be the only team side who can go past Australia's PCT.
New Zealand (PCT: 50)
Consecutive Test wins in India have lifted New Zealand's PCT to 50. In the ongoing WTC cycle, they will play one more Test in India and three against England at home. The Kiwis need to win all their remaining four games to stay in contention for a place in the final. Doing so will take their PCT to 64.29. They also need to hope that other results go their way so they can finish in the top two.
South Africa (PCT: 47.62)
After facing Bangladesh in one more away Test, South Africa will play two Tests each against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The Proteas will qualify for the WTC final if they win all their remaining five Tests. In such a scenario, their PCT will be 69.44, which can be surpassed by only one of India or Australia.
With four wins and a draw, South Africa will end with a PCT of 63.89, while four wins and a loss will see their points percentage fall to 61.11. The Proteas stand a chance of qualifying for the WTC final in such scenarios as well, but need other results to go their way.
Sri Lanka (PCT: 55.56)
Following their 2-0 series win over New Zealand, Sri Lanka remain in contention for a place in the WTC final. They are set to feature in two away Tests against South Africa and two home Tests against Australia. If the Lankans win all their remaining games, their PCT to rise to 69.23, which will confirm a place for them in the World Test Championship final.
Sri Lanka can also qualify if they win three and lose one of their remaining four games. In such a scenario, their PCT would be 61.54. The Lankans, however, need to hope for other results to go their way for them to qualify.