WTC final qualification scenarios: How India, Australia and South Africa can qualify for the 2025 World Test Championship final
The third Test between India and Australia at The Gabba in Brisbane, played as part of the ongoing World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, ended in a draw on Wednesday, December 18. India won the first Test in Perth by 295 runs, while Australia hit back with a 10-wicket triumph in Adelaide. The teams will thus head into the Boxing Day Test in Melbourne with the series locked at 1-1.
Speaking of the Brisbane Test, the match was heavily marred by rain, thus preventing a result in the contest. Sent into bat, Australia put up 445 on the board courtesy of tons from Travis Head (152) and Steve Smith (101). In response, India recovered from a poor start to post 260 as KL Rahul top-scored with 84, while all-rounder Ravindra Jadeja contributed 77.
Following the draw in Brisbane, both India and Australia remain in contention for a place in the WTC final. South Africa are also strong contenders to make it to the top two. Sri Lanka are still in with an outside chance, while Pakistan also have a slim mathematical possibility of qualifying. On that note, let's take a look at the WTC qualification scenarios for India, Australia and South Africa.
India (PCT: 55.88)
India are third in the World Test Championship points table, with points percentage of 55.88. The visitors need to win both their remaining matches in BGT 2024-25 to qualify for the WTC final irrespective of other results. In such a scenario, they will finish with a PCT of 60.53, while Australia can get to only 57.02 even if they beat Sri Lanka 2-0 in their away series.
If India win one and draw the other Test, they will end with 57.02. Australia can then overtake them with a PCT of 58.77 if they beat Sri Lanka 2-0. In case of a 2-1 result, India can qualify if Australia beat Sri Lanka 1-0 or South Africa lose to Pakistan by at least a 1-0 margin.
If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy ends in a 2-2 draw, India will finish with a PCT of 55.26. For them to qualify for the WTC final, Australia will then need to lose to Sri Lanka by at least a 1-0 margin, or South Africa must go down 2-0 to Pakistan.
On the other hand, if the series ends in a 1-1 draw, India will have a PCT of 53.51. In such a scenario, South Africa will need to lose both Tests to Pakistan or Australia will have to lose 1-0 in Sri Lanka or draw the series 0-0. In case of a 0-0 draw, Australia and India will finish with the same PCT (53.51). However, India will finish ahead of the Aussies in the WTC table on the basis of more series wins.
# Australia (PCT: 58.89)
If Australia win both the upcoming Tests against India in Melbourne and Sydney, they will qualify for the WTC final. If Australia manage only a draw against India, they will need to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 to finish with a PCT of 58.77, which would put them ahead of India (57.20), else they will need South Africa to lose by at least a 1-0 margin to Pakistan.
With a win and a draw in the remaining two Tests against India, they will finish with a PCT of 53.51 even if they go down 2-0 to Sri Lanka. In such a scenario, India will be stuck on 51.75. However, a 2-0 win would mean that Sri Lanka (53.85) would be ahead of Australia in the WTC table. As such, Australia will need at least a draw against Sri Lanka to qualify, assuming South Africa finish in the top two.
South Africa (PCT 63.33)
South Africa can qualify for the WTC final if they win one of their remaining two Tests against Pakistan at home. However, if they lose 1-0, South Africa will finish with a PCT of 55.56. India can surpass them with a win and a draw in Australia. The Aussies can also go past the Proteas with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.
On the other hand, if South Africa lose both Tests to Pakistan, their PCT in the WTC table will drop to 52.78. At least one of India or Australia then go past the Proteas. However, if India get only four points from their last two matches and Sri Lanka don't beat Australia 2-0, then South Africa and Australia are in with a chance to qualify for the WTC final.
South Africa and India can qualify for the World Test Championship final if Rohit Sharma and Co. win one and draw one of their two BGT 2024-25 Tests and then Sri Lanka beat Australia by a 1-0 margin.