WTC final qualification scenarios: How India, Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand can qualify for 2025 World Test Championship final
India beat Australia by 295 runs in Perth in the first Test of the 2024-25 Border-Gavaskar Trophy, part of the ongoing World Test Championship (WTC) cycle. India took a 1-0 lead in the five-match series by registering their biggest in Tests Down Under in terms of runs, surpassing the 222-run triumph in Melbourne in 1977.
Batting first after winning the toss, India were bowled out for 150. However, stand-in captain Jasprit Bumrah starred with 5-30 as Australia were held to 104 in their first innings. Hundreds from young opener Yashasvi Jaiswal (161) and senior batter Virat Kohli (100*) saw India set the Aussies a target of 534. The hosts were bowled out for 238 as Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj picked up three scalps each.
Having been whitewashed 3-0 at home by the Kiwis, the win in Perth was crucial for India concerning their qualification hopes for the 2025 World Test Championship final. Besides India - Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka are also in contention for a place in the WTC final. Following the Perth Test, let's take a look at the qualification scenarios for all five teams.
India (PCT: 61.11)
Following their memorable win against the Aussies in Perth, Team India moved back to the top of the WTC points table, with their points percentage (PCT) rising to 61.11. However, they are still some distance from sealing a place in the World Test Championship final.
To confirm their spot in the 2025 WTC final without depending on other results, they need to beat Australia by a 4-0 margin in the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy. If they lose one Test in the series, India will have to hope that South Africa, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand lose at least one of their remaining Tests. A series loss to Australia would make it difficult for India to reach the WTC final.
Australia (PCT: 57.69)
Following their heavy loss to India in Perth, Australia have moved down to second position in the WTC points table. They now have a PCT of 57.69. To qualify for the World Test Championship final without depending on other results, the Aussies will have to win five of their remaining six Test matches in the ongoing cycle.
If Australia win their remaining four Tests against India, even a 1-1 draw against Sri Lanka will be enough for them to qualify for the WTC final. If they win the series 3-2, they will need to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 to be assured of a top-two finish. If Australia go down 2-3 to India, they must beat the Lankans 2-0 and then hope that the other results go their way.
Sri Lanka (PCT: 55.56)
Sri Lanka are currently third in the WTC points table, with a PCT of 55.56. With victories in their last three Tests, they have come roaring back into contention. If they win their remaining four Tests (two against South Africa and two against Australia), their PCT will jump to 69.2, assuring them of a place in the WTC final. However, if they lose one Test, they will finish with a PCT of 61.54. Sri Lanka would still be in contention but will need other results to go their way.
New Zealand (PCT: 54.55)
Following their unexpected 3-0 win over India in India, New Zealand find themselves at fourth position in the points table, with a PCT of 54.55. The Kiwis have three Tests remaining in the ongoing WTC cycle, which they will play against England at home. If they win all three matches, New Zealand's PCT will rise to 64.29. It will, however, not guarantee them a place in the top two.
If the Kiwis win their remaining three games and the South Africa-Sri Lanka series ends in a 1-1 draw, only one of India or Australia could potentially go past them, giving them a genuine chance to qualify. However, if New Zealand lose even one game, their chances would suffer a major setback.
South Africa (PCT: 54.17)
With a PCT of 54.17, South Africa are marginally below Sri Lanka in the World Test Championship points table. They have four home Test matches left to play in the ongoing cycle - two against Sri Lanka and two against Pakistan.
If they win all four Tests, they will end with a PCT of 69.44, which should be enough for them to qualify for the final as only Australia can then surpass them. Three wins and a draw will see them finish with a PCT of 63.89, while three wins and a loss will push their points percentage down to 61.11. In both scenarios, they will remain in contention provided other results go their way.