WTC final qualification scenarios: How India, Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka and New Zealand can qualify for the World Test Championship final
India's chances of qualifying for the World Test Championship (WTC) final were further dented as they went down to New Zealand by 25 runs in the third and final Test at Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai on Sunday, November 3. Set to chase a target of 147, the hosts crumbled to 121 all out to concede the series 3-0 as the Kiwis achieved something that no other side had managed before them in India.
Team India's hopes of avoiding an embarrassing whitewash were raised when they managed to eke out a 28-run first-innings lead in Mumbai. Ravindra Jadeja (5-55) and Ravichandran Ashwin (3-63) then combined to bowl out New Zealand for 174 in their second innings. India's batting, however, crumbled yet again in a chase of 147 as only Rishabh Pant (64) held the fort until his controversial dismissal.
Following the 3-0 loss to the Kiwis, Team India have moved down to No. 2 on the World Test Championship points table, with the Aussies moving up to No. 1. On that note, let's take a look at the WTC final qualification scenarios for India, Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka and New Zealand.
India (PCT: 58.33)
Following the loss to New Zealand in Mumbai, India's points percentage (PCT) has fallen to 58.33. They have won eight and lost five of their 14 games, with one match ending in a draw. Team India will next take on Australia in the five-match Border-Gavaskar Trophy.
To be certain of a place in the World Test Championship final, they will need to thump the Aussies by a 4-0 margin Down Under. Such a result will lift India's PCT to 65.79. Even if New Zealand beat England 3-0 at home, they will still finish with a PCT of 64.29. South Africa can achieve a highest PCT of 69.44 if they beat Sri Lanka and Pakistan 2-0 at home, but India can still finish in second place.
India can reach the WTC final even if they lose by a slender margin to Australia. However, for that, the other teams should not maximize their points and a lot of other results need to go their way as well.
Australia (PCT: 62.50)
With a PCT of 62.50, Australia are currently on top of the World Test Championship points table. They will take on India in five home Tests as part of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy and Sri Lanka in two away Tests.
To be completely assured of a place in the WTC final, the Aussies need to win five wins of their seven remaining Tests. If Australia beat India 3-2, they will be ahead of India even if they go down 2-0 in Sri Lanka. However, with New Zealand and South Africa also in the race, they will want to come up with better results.
South Africa (PCT: 54.17)
The Proteas are currently fifth in the World Test Championship points table, with a PCT of 54.17. However, they will end their WTC cycle with four home Tests - two against Sri Lanka and two against Pakistan.
If South Africa win all four matches, they will finish with a PCT of 69.44, which will confirm their qualification for the World Test Championship final as only Australia can surpass them on the points table. South Africa can also qualify with three wins and a draw (PCT 63.89) and three wins and a loss (PCT 61.11), provided some of the other results go their way.
Sri Lanka (PCT: 55.56)
Sri Lanka will play two away Tests in South Africa and two home Tests against Australia to conclude their WTC cycle. If they win all four matches, the Lankans will finish with a points percentage of 69.23, which will ensure their qualification for the World Test Championship final.
If they win three and lose one of their remaining four matches, Sri Lanka will end with a PCT of 61.54. While that will not guarantee them qualification, they can finish in the top two if some of the other results go their way.
New Zealand (PCT: 54.55)
New Zealand's incredible 3-0 win over India has kept their WTC final hopes alive, though their path remains a tricky one. The Kiwis will play three Tests against England at home to conclude their World Test Championship assignments in the ongoing cycle.
If New Zealand blank the Englishmen 3-0, they will finish with a PCT of 64.29. The Kiwis then need to hope for other results to go their way. If New Zealand lose one of the Tests, their PCT will drop to 57.14. This too might be enough for them to qualify for the WTC final if other permutations and combinations are in their favor.